BICOM

What happened?

• The Royal Navy has revealed the extent of its confrontations with Iranian forces in the Gulf. The commander of the UK frigate HMS Montrose said he had dealt with 115 confrontations with Iranian forces since the seizure of the British flagged tanker, Stena Impero, by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on 19 July. These included flying drones to spy on the British ship, fast-moving speedboats with heavily armed soldiers wearing balaclavas coming close by and intimidating radio messages.
• One gunner on the HMS Montrose said he had to prepare his heavy machine gun more than 20 times in the past four months
• Commander Will King of HMS Montrose said this was the closest the UK and Iran have come to a full-blown military conflict.
• After the Stena Impero seizure, Iranian naval forces routinely asked commercial vessels if they had British crew on board.

Context

• The UK has increased its naval presence in the Gulf since the incidents in July. HMS Montrose has been joined by the type 45 destroyer HMS Duncan, a destroyer, and the Royal Navy has also despatched the frigate HMS Kent and another type 45 destroyer, the HMS Defender. The UK has also joined a maritime security taskforce with the US to protect maritime vessels travelling through the Straits of Hormuz.
• The Iranian oil tanker, previously called Grace 1 but renamed Adrian Darya, was released recently by Gibraltan authorities after Iran promised not to send the oil to Syria. Despite those assurances it was last tracked yesterday near the coast of Lebanon.
• Iranian forces continue to hold the Stena Impero and its 23 person crew.
• British national Nazanin Zaghari Ratcliffe is currently in prison in Iran after being convicted of espionage. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab met her husband Richard yesterday and said: “We will continue to do everything we can to free Nazanin”

Looking ahead

• The UK is part of diplomatic efforts to patch up the Iran nuclear deal and encourage Iran not to violate the deal any further than it has already. But at the same time it is still engaged in intense diplomatic and naval activity to ensure freedom of navigation in the Gulf.
• BICOM’s briefing assessing Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Middle East policy concluded that he supports the Iran nuclear deal but is prepared to restart sanctions on Iran and would do everything in his power to “constrain Iran’s disruptive behaviour in the region.”

If Iran breaks its promise not to deliver the Adrian Darya 1’s oil to Syria and refuses to release the Stena Impero and its crew then the UK will consider tougher measures and sanctions against Iran but, at the same time, will be keen not to escalate tensions given the number of UK nationals currently held by Iran including the high profile case of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe.