BICOM

What happened: Hezbollah fired 2 – 3 guided anti-tank missiles yesterday afternoon at an Israeli military base and an armoured ambulance in Northern Israel, near the Avivim moshav. No Israel Defence Forces (IDF) personnel were injured.

• The IDF in response launched approximately 100 artillery and tank shells at the Hezbollah cell responsible and open fields in the area, with attack helicopters striking additional Hezbollah positions. This was the first major exchange of fire between Hezbollah and Israel since 2015.
• After two hours of exchanges of fire, a tense calm was restored to the border region, although the IDF remained on high alert.
• A large part of the IDF response, it turned out after the fact, was psychological warfare. Israel refrained from confirming or denying any casualties after the initial attack. Instead, in a pre-planned move, several “wounded” soldiers – in fake blood-soaked bandages – were medically evacuated via helicopter to hospital, thus leading Hezbollah to believe it had inflicted serious casualties and completed its mission (and would therefore be more likely to keep the incident contained).

Context: Hezbollah immediately claimed responsibility for the attack and said it was in retaliation for the killing by Israel of two operatives in Syria last week. The Hezbollah cell responsible for the anti-tank missile attack was named after the two Hezbollah fighters killed in that attack. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had for the past week vowed a response.

• The Israeli strike in Syria was to pre-empt a reported “suicide drone” attack against northern Israel by Iranian-linked Shia militants.
• A subsequent drone attack in southern Beirut’s Dahiyeh neighborhood, a Hezbollah stronghold, was also believed to be an Israeli attempt to pre-empt the establishment of precision missile factories in Lebanon.
• BICOM produced a detailed report in February setting out the intended production process for precision guided missiles in Lebanon and Israel’s strategic dilemma of when to take concrete military steps to limit the production process.

Looking ahead: Since yesterday afternoon both Israel and Hezbollah have held fire, with both sides exhibiting relative satisfaction at the results of yesterday’s clashes and avoiding all-out escalation. Hezbollah has its retaliation for the previous week’s attacks, while Israel suffered no casualties (as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu put it, “not even a scratch”).

• The key question remains whether Hezbollah will attempt further similar attacks – either in response to the separate Beirut drone strike or due to its inability to inflict casualties yesterday.
• Some criticism has been aired inside Israel at the overly confident post-incident response by the government, in particular the gloating over the medical evacuation psy-op. Some analysts warn that this could publicly embarrass Hezbollah and push it towards follow-on strikes.​​​​​​​