BICOM

What happened: A senior Israeli defence official said yesterday that Iran’s attempts to produce precision guided missiles across the Middle East is now ranked as the second most serious strategic threat to Israel, behind only Tehran’s nuclear program and ahead of the Islamic Republic’s military efforts in Syria.

• The source confirmed that Israel struck ‘various fronts’ between August 24 to 26. Israel had previously only taken responsibility for airstrikes in Syria against what it described as an imminent “suicide drone” attack; a target in Beirut reportedly part of Hezbollah’s precision missile project was subsequently hit in Beirut, while a Shia militia convoy was bombed in western Iraq.
• But in a Facebook video with supporters last Friday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed Israel had been striking Iranian assets in Iraq.

Context: Israel has for several years been tracking Iran’s efforts to equip its proxy forces – primarily Hezbollah in Lebanon – with precision guided missiles. Israel had previously taken action to thwart Iranian efforts to move such missile technology into Syria and Lebanon.

• For the past year Israel has been warning of Iranian efforts to move its precision missile production program directly into Lebanon. Netanyahu had publicly warned of such a scenario at the UN General Assembly meeting in 2018, with Israel thereafter gradually releasing more details and information about the program.
• According to the senior defense official, five months ago Israel elevated its threat perception of the missile program. “We can’t afford the precision of the missiles in Lebanon,” the source said, alluding to Hezbollah’s arsenal of over 100,000 unguided rockets and the danger that such projectiles, upgraded to precision missiles capable of striking within 10 meters of a target, could have on Israel.
• Iran had also recently turned Iraq into a central front in its missile program: either as a transit point for the transfer of such systems overland into Syria or as a launch pad (via Iranian-allied Shia militias) to target Israel.
• BICOM published a detailed paper in February this year examining the technology Iran has developed to upgrade non-guided missiles to precision guided missiles.

Looking ahead: Prior to the recent drone attack in Beirut, reportedly an Israeli attack, Jerusalem had refrained from taking direct action inside Lebanon to thwart the precision missile program. Hezbollah termed the move a violation of previous “rules of the game” and responded on Sunday with a cross-border anti-tank missile attack against Israeli forces.

• Tensions remain high, with the Israeli military still on elevated alert on the northern border.
• The question remains whether Israel will strike inside Lebanon again if it believes Iran and Hezbollah are continuing to move forward with their precision missile program – even at the risk of sparking a major escalation