BICOM

What happened?

• Haaretz reported that Israeli government officials have been in intensive talks with the White House over a potential statement by the President Trump in the next two weeks relating to a ‘defence pact’.
• Speculation includes a joint announcement about the start of negotiations over a future defence pact.  Another ‘gesture’ could also be a presidential statement by Trump that the US under his leadership will help Israel militarily in the event of a future conflict .
• Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said last week in a radio interview, “We’re constantly in conversations about that, making sure that we collectively have defence systems capabilities that are appropriate for their needs. I have every confidence this president, who moved our embassy and who made clear Israel’s rights in the Golan Heights, will do all that is necessary to ensure that our great partner in Israel will be protected.”

Context:

• President Trump recognised Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights two weeks before the April 9 election, reversing decades of US policy.
• Likud are planning to focus the final phase of their election campaign on Netanyahu’s diplomatic skills operating on the global stage.  He received two further boosts that he announced at the Cabinet meeting yesterday:
  • He welcomed the remarks by the foreign ministers of Bahrain and the UAE who spoke out against the recent Hezbollah attack and in support of Israel. These statements along with support from other prominent Arab figures are further evidence of the gradual rapprochement between Israel and the Arab world.
  • There was also reportedly progress in Netanyahu’s effort to hold another trilateral summit with Russia, the US and Israel in Jerusalem.  The summit will again include the three National Security Advisers and discuss Iran and Syria. Russian sources have said they would be willing to participate in a summit meeting only after the understandings attained in the last meeting in June, are implemented.
• Netanyahu cancelled his planned visit to India next week. Netanyahu called Indian Prime Minister Modi and they agreed that the visit would take place after the elections.

Looking ahead:

• Any US statement relating to a new  ‘defence pact’ will be a big boost to Netanyahu and provide reassurance as Israel remains on a high state of alert due to Iranian and Hezbollah activity in Syria and Lebanon. However beyond the symbolism of a declaration, it is far from clear that they will actually sign a pact.  The issue has been discussed for three decades as the military relationship has flourished and grown, but some senior former officials warn that such a pact could inhibit Israel’s future freedom of action.

• After the India trip was cancelled rumours started that Netanyahu is planning another high-profile event, possibly a visit to Israel by either Putin or Trump or for him to travel to Moscow or Washington.