BICOM

Northern front: The IDF has completed a large scale training exercise close to the northern border.

• It said that troops simulated several, “extreme scenarios, combat in complex and mountainous terrain, activating fire, and urban warfare, as part of increasing readiness in the northern arena.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu oversaw part of the training, saying afterwards, “the brigade-level exercise is very impressive in terms of capabilities, mobilisation and implementation. The implementation is very considerable, with soldiers and commanders from all parts of the country and all parts of Israeli society. They are determined and devoted to the mission – to defend the country and achieve victory, nothing less.”
• IDF Chief of Staff Halevi also oversaw the manoeuvres, accompanied by several senior commanders.
• In parallel, President Herzog completed a two day tour of the north, focused primarily on civil society.
• At the conclusion of his visit, the president met with the heads of the local councils in the frontline communities and said: ““I remind all of Israel that the displaced, the evacuees, and all those who endure the fires and the flames are Jews, Muslims, Druze, and Christians alike. We are aware that all aspects of life here are challenged, and we are united in this battle.”
• He added, “I reiterate what I have said before – the international community cannot act surprised if the situation spirals out of control, as the international community has almost done nothing to contribute to the full security of the residents of Israel, despite repeated violations of treaties and international agreements from Lebanon by Hezbollah.”
• Amid concerns about imminent war, dozens of countries have revised their travel advisories regarding Israel and Lebanon and have called on their citizens to leave both countries immediately and to refrain from traveling to the region.
• After a relatively quiet morning, yesterday afternoon sirens were heard in several northern communities.
• On the Lebanese side, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) struck Hezbollah infrastructure in the areas of Shuba, Aita ash-Shab and Khiam.
• Later in the afternoon, four anti-tank missiles were fired at the northern Israeli town of Metulla, damaging a residential building, but no injuries were reported.
• On Wednesday evening, Syrian sources reported that the IAF launched an attack on several targets on the outskirts of Damascus.  According to the UK based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, at least three people were killed and 11 injured. The target was apparently a command centre of a Hezbollah-affiliated Iranian militia.
• Syrian regime sources said the targets were owned by the Iranian Jihad Habniya organisation, which focuses on rebuilding Damascus suburbs damaged during the Syrian civil war..

Context: Israel’s preference is to reach a diplomatic set of understandings with Hezbollah that would allow for the residents of northern Israel to return to their homes after more than eight months of being internally displaced.

• The hope is that US mediation and pressure can lead to Hezbollah removing its forces away from the border and ending their ariel attacks. However, the risk of an extended conflagration is high.
• Since October 8th, there have been over 4,700 missiles fired towards northern Israel from Lebanon and Syria. 29 Israelis (both civilians and soldiers) have been killed in the north in that time.
• On the ground, this last week has actually seen a small decrease in Hezbollah attacks, with an average of around 6 attacks each day. This is similar to rate from earlier this year and lower compared to the figures during most of May and June.
• The Lebanese front was high on the agenda during Defence Minister Gallant’s meetings in Washington this week. He met with several senior US administration officials, including Secretary of State Blinken, Secretary of Defence Austin, National Security Adviser Sullivan and Special Envoy Hochstein.
• As Israel hopes for a diplomatic solution, Israeli officials are keen to rebuild their deterrence against Hezbollah, hence the increase in troop deployment and training. A third component of the deterrence is to ensure they receive the necessary arms shipments from the US.
• Minister Gallant related to this following his meeting with National Security Advisor Sullivan, saying, “it is moving to see the great support we receive from the US government and the American public. During the meetings we made significant progress, obstacles were removed and bottlenecks were addressed, in order to advance a variety of issues, and more specifically the topic of force build-up and munition supply that we must bring to the State of Israel.”
• As fighting eases in the south, the IDF is able to redeploy troops to the north. This is also part of the IDF’s transition to the third stage of the fighting in the Gaza Strip, as they are expected to redeploy out of population centres into an eastern buffer zone.
• If a hostage deal can be reached with Hamas it is hoped that, just like the temporary pause in November, Hezbollah will also cease its attacks, allowing diplomatic efforts a chance to bear fruit.

Looking ahead: The IDF is expected to continue their training and preparations, but no date for an operation has been set.

• President Herzog appealed to government authorities to do more to assist the residents of the north. He said, “I call on the tax authorities and all the bodies involved in supporting small and medium businesses, and industrial enterprises to act much faster. We see small businesses collapsing because no one is giving them attention.”
• He continued: “If we want people to stay and not evacuate, we need to provide them with a strong home front, and the central government must assist all those working hard, risking their lives, operating emergency response teams, schools, and much more, while dealing with the emotional and psychological challenges as summer approaches and the school year begins.