BICOM

The South: Sirens sounded in Israeli communities near the Gaza Strip this morning, as approximately 20 projectiles were launched from the Khan Yunis area. Some were intercepted while some fell inside southern Israel, with no injuries reported. IDF returned artillery fire to the source.

• Fighting continues in Rafah, where IDF troops discovered “significant tunnel shafts… that led to a tunnel network.” The discovered tunnel is said to be 500 metres long and passes near an UNRWA school. In further searches of the area, troops found nine rocket launchers.
• Fighting also continues in the central Strip, and in the northern Gaza City’s Shejaiya neighbourhood, where troops killed dozens of Hamas fighters in close-quarters combat and with aerial fire support.
• According to the IDF, “as part of operational searches of civilian structures converted into terrorist infrastructure, the soldiers raided a UN school that the terrorists of the Shejaiya Battalion were using as a hideout and a warehouse. The troops discovered dozens of weapons, grenades, and valuable intelligence documents.”
• “Additionally, the soldiers located a terrorist war room in a medical clinic containing communications devices, enemy documents, and observation devices. This is further evidence of Hamas embedding itself in civilian structures for terror purposes.”
• On Saturday, the IDF announced that two soldiers had fallen in battle in Gaza. Staff Sergeant Yair Avitan, 20, from Ra’anana, a soldier from the 890th Battalion of the Paratroopers Brigade, Sergeant First Class (Res.) Yakir Shmuel Tatelbaum, 21, from Ma’ale Adumim, a soldier from the 77th Battalion of the 7th Brigade, both died fighting in northern Gaza.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant yesterday held a situation assessment with the heads of the security establishment, in anticipation of the coming completion of the operation in Rafah.
• Gallant said: “We will continue and will intensify until we reach a situation in which we strangle Hamas’s oxygen pipeline and don’t let them rebuild their forces.”
• Israeli media said that the security chiefs reiterated their demand for political approval for plans for the ‘day after’ in Gaza.

The north: Twenty-one Israeli soldiers were wounded yesterday in a Hezbollah drone attack near Merom Golan. One soldier sustained serious injuries and the others are listed as being in either moderate or light condition.

• Golan Regional Council Chairman Uri Kellner said: “I want to make it clear to the decision-makers in the State of Israel, both the military and the civilian. We do not accept this equation of every time that the IDF attacks deep inside Lebanon, Hezbollah’s response is here in the Golan. We have to break this equation, we have to provide security and protect us, the residents of the Golan.”
• Overnight, the Israeli Air Force struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, including in the Kfarkela, Houla, El Biyada and Rab El Thalathine areas. IDF artillery also struck to remove a threat in Al-Dahira.
• On Friday night, three hostile UAVs were identified crossing from Lebanon into northern Israel and fell in the Western Galilee area. No injures were reported. 25 launches were also reported crossing from southern Lebanon into the western Galilee and Galilee panhandle areas. No injuries were reported, though damage was caused to a building and firefighters had to extinguish multiple blazes caused by the launches.

Context: The 20 rockets fired this morning is the first time in several months that Hamas has been able to launch so large a battery of rockets at Israel.  Overall, Hamas has fired almost 20,000 rockets at Israel in the last nine months.

• Through a combination of Hamas having fired rockets and the IDF having destroyed them in many places, the IDF assessment is that Hamas has only around 10 percent of its pre-war rocket capacity left.
• Unlike Hezbollah in the north, Hamas is not able to be re-supplied by its Iranian patron. Reports today suggest that Iran has accelerated its arms smuggling operation to Hezbollah in recent weeks. The latest shipments are thought to be focussing on anti-aircraft systems, as well as more sophisticated anti-tank missiles.
• In parallel, Iran continues to threaten Israel, its UN mission last week pledging an “obliterating war” if Israel attacked Lebanon.
• The fighting in Rafah is drawing to a close, the IDF is soon expected to announce an end to the eight-month ground operation and move to the third phase of the war.
• Overall, the IDF is thought to have killed or injured over 1000 Hamas terrorists in Rafah, out of the 3,000 that were deployed prior the incursion.
• The rest have fled north along with the general population, though some are likely to be hiding in the underground tunnels.
• The anticipated announcement will declare an end to this phase, allowing the IDF to withdraw most of its troops.
• However, the war against Hamas is expected to continue, just in a different form. The fighting is expected to resemble the targeted, intelligence-led, precision operations focusing on senior Hamas figures and on Hamas’s attempts to reconstitute its fighting force, as we have seen in northern Gaza.
• As Israel transitions towards Phase Three, the IDF will redeploy out of the Palestinian population centres, remaining in the corridor that bisects the Strip in the central Netzarim area, and the Philadelphi Corridor along the Egyptian border.
• Control of the Philadelphi Corridor is crucial to ensuring that Hamas cannot smuggle in more weapons and rearm.
• The IDF are expected to continue to dismantle and decommission the tunnels under the Gaza-Egypt border, but will need to do so carefully and cautiously as many have been booby-trapped with heavy explosives.
• The latest IDF fatalities takes the overall total to 670 IDF soldiers killed since October 7^th, of which 316 fell in the Gaza Strip since the beginning of the ground operation.
• 120 hostages remain in Hamas captivity, now for 268 days. According to the latest Israeli assessment, at least 43 are no longer alive.
• There are currently no negotiations taking place, though reports suggest Qatar is finally placing pressure on Hamas to soften its stance.
• The end of the ground incursion could be a window of opportunity to renew talks.

Looking ahead: The security cabinet is expected to reconvene later this week, following which the prime minister could announce an end to the ground incursion in Gaza.

• By withdrawing troops in the south, some could be deployed to the north ahead of a potential operation against Hezbollah’s presence in southern Lebanon