BICOM

What’s happened: In the face of a potentially imminent Iranian attack in response to Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran, Israel continues to come under Hamas and Hezbollah fire from both the Gaza Strip and Lebanon.

• Following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week, the US is said to believe that an Iranian response against Israel may be imminent. This would likely be similar to mid-April’s mass missile and drone launches against Israel, but on a larger scale and also supported by Iran’s proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.
• The US and its regional allies are urging restraint and de-escalation, with Jordan’s Foreign Minister making a rare visit to Iran over the weekend in a last-ditch effort to prevent Iran retaliating against Haniyeh’s death.
• According to a Wall Street Journal report from Sunday, Iran has rejected pleas for moderation and is determined to retaliate even if doing so sparks a regional war.
• The US has also said that it will deploy additional military assets to the Middle East to defend Israel from an expected Iranian attack. These will likely include fighters jets and additional ballistic missile defence-capable cruisers and destroyers.
• While several international airliners have cancelled flights to and from Israel, the country’s airspace remains open with no indications of imminent closure.
• General Michael Kurilla, Commander of US CENTCOM, will arrive in Israel today to complete preparations with the IDF to defend against this likely attack.
• Over the weekend, Hezbollah also fired dozens of drones and rockets at northern Israel. The majority were intercepted, but two Israeli soldiers were moderately wounded in a drone strike near Kibbutz Ayelet HaShahar earlier this morning. The IDF has responded with air and artillery strikes at Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.
• Yesterday, Hamas fired at least 19 rockets from the Gaza Strip in its largest barrage for weeks. While predominantly targeting the border community of Sufa, sirens were also triggered in Kiryat Malachi which is 40km away. No injuries were reported, and the IDF later said that it destroyed the rocket launchers used in the strikes.
• Elsewhere in the Gaza Strip, the IDF continues its efforts to degrade and destroy Hamas’s terrorist infrastructure. A particularly large tunnel big enough to drive a vehicle through was uncovered in the Philadelphia Corridor, and is one of dozens that has been identified and destroyed. The IDF has also struck Hamas command and control centres embedded within the Hassan Salame and Nasser schools in Gaza City.
• The IDF has conducted counter-terror operations in the West Bank city of Tulkarem, eliminating nine terrorists in two airstrikes that took place on Saturday. The terrorists killed were associated with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and part of cells responsible for the deaths of Israeli soldiers and police officers earlier in the year.
• Two Israelis were also killed in a stabbing attack in the Tel Aviv suburb of Holon on Sunday. A Palestinian terrorist from the West Bank was killed by responding Israeli police officers.

Context: Over 300 days into OPERATION SWORDS OF IRON, there is little prospect of hostilities abating in either the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, or further afield where Iran maintains a network of proxies as part of the “Axis of Resistance”.

• Following Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran, Egypt and Qatar have both questioned the future of negotiations between Israel and Hamas intended to secure a ceasefire and the release of hostages held in the Gaza Strip. Haniyeh was a senior member of Hamas’s negotiating delegation, and President Biden has branded his assassination as “unhelpful”.
• In the event that negotiations restart and then fail, the US has now guaranteed that Israel will be able to resume its military operations against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Looking ahead: Israel is preparing for Iran’s likely retaliation to Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran while the US works to revive April’s defensive coalition.

• While the US has warned that Iran’s expected attack against Israel may come as early as today, it has also been suggested that it could take place on the fast of Tisha B’Av which begins next Monday evening and commemorates national disasters experienced by the Jewish people.
• It is expected that this attack will be similar to April’s, but on a larger scale and involve hundreds or thousands of drones and missiles being fired at Israel from Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.
• The US is currently working to reconstitute the international coalition which came together to defend Israel against Iran’s attack in April. Coordinated by CENTOM, it is hoped that this coalition will see the UK, US, France, UAE, Jordan, and other Sunni Arab states join forces and protect Israeli airspace against missiles and drones fired by Iran and its proxies.