BICOM

What’s happened: Last night Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke on the phone with President Biden and Vice President Harris.

• According to the White House, “The President reaffirmed his commitment to Israel’s security against all threats from Iran, including its proxy terrorist groups Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. The President discussed efforts to support Israel’s defence against threats, including against ballistic missiles and drones, to include new defensive US military deployments.”
• Today Defence Secretary, John Healey, who is visiting the region, is expected to arrive to Israel.
• Earlier this week the UK Permanent Representative to the UN, Ambassador Barbara Woodward said, “The UK is resolute in our commitment to Israel’s security. We support Israel’s right to defend itself in the face of such aggression, in line with international humanitarian law.”
• On the ground yesterday, Hezbollah resumed firing rockets into northern Israel aimed at several communities in the western Galilee.
• In a speech on Thursday, Hezbollah leader Nasrallah warned of a harsh response following the assassination of his Chief of Staff. Nasrallah warned, “Because they have picked a fight with everyone, they don’t know where the response will come from … the response will come separately or coordinated.” Nasrallah also warned that the war had entered a “new phase”.
• This morning, IDF announced that during a “targeted, intelligence-based operation, the IDF eliminated the terrorist Mohammed al-Jabari, who was deputy head of weapons manufacturing for the Islamic Jihad.”
• In addition, “IDF troops eliminated approximately 30 terrorists in the area of Rafah.”
• Separately, more details have emerged on Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran. According to the New York Times, he was killed by an explosive device that had been placed in his room more than a month in advance of his visit, and detonated once it was confirmed he was inside.

Context: Israel’s security forces remain on high alert as the country braces for a response to the assassinations this week of Shukr and Haniyeh.

• The IDF has cancelled all leave to ensure they stand at maximum capability and readiness.
• In addition to increased aerial patrols, dozens of Israeli Air Force fighter jets were waiting on tarmacs, ready to launch an attack or defend against one.
• With the conversation with leading allies and the rare visit of a UK defence secretary Israel will be hoping that the international coalition that stood with Israel when Iran attacked on April 14 will be similarly effective.
• On a recent visit to Israel Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, Commander, US Central Command met with the Minister of Defence Gallant, Chief of the General Staff Lt. Gen. Halevi, and other key security figures. The leaders shared intelligence assessments and discussed the security challenges faced in both the southern and northern arenas of Israel as well as broader regional security concerns. The discussions emphasised enhancing defence and technological cooperation to strengthen Israel’s security and bolster deterrence against regional threats.
• Israel’s confirmation of Deif’s death yesterday is a significant moment in the war. He was directly involved in operational military decisions and led the coordination among the Hamas commanders.
• However Haniyeh was seen as more of a symbolic figure. The Israeli assessment does not believe his assassination will hamper the hostage negotiations.
• Due to the IDF’s campaign in Gaza, it seems Hamas’s capabilities have been significantly reduced. The group’s failure to respond forcefully to the assassination to the targeting of either Deif or Haniyeh is testament to this.
• Haniyeh’s assassinated on Iranian soil, while there as an official guest of the regime is deeply humiliating for the Iran leadership and will therefore elicit a response.
• In April, when Iran attacked Israel with over 300 missiles and drones, its proxies in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen were not directly involved.
• The response this time may include a coordinated attack possibly from a range of Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen as well as Lebanon and Iran itself.

Looking ahead: Both the Hamas and Hezbollah leaders will be buried today in Qatar and Lebanon respectively.

• Hamas has called for a ‘Day or Rage’ and for all mosques around the world to include a memorial prayer for Haniyeh.
• After the funeral, the Iranian axis could launch an imminent attack on Israel, whilst it could be that they will wait for a few more days.
• US officials have also raised a scenario in which attacks may take place on US forces in Iraq and Syria.