BICOM

Key Points

• Israel calls halt to its operation, believing its military objectives to have been met
• Major Israeli humanitarian effort includes field hospital to treat Gaza civilians
• International diplomatic effort now focussed on ensuring Hamas does not rearm

Key Statements

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert (17 January): “We have no disagreement with the residents of Gaza.  We consider the Gaza Strip a part of the future Palestinian state with which we hope to live a life of good neighbourliness, and we wish for the day when the vision of two states is realized.”

Foreign Secretary David Miliband (17 January): “The voice of the international community has been loud and unequivocal in calling for an immediate, permanent and fully respected ceasefire. It is now imperative that Hamas stops the rocket attacks against Israeli civilians.”

International Development Secretary Douglas Alexander (18 January): “From the British government’s point of view, we are clear that there is first of all a heavy responsibility on Hamas who have been firing these rockets – even in the hours since the unilateral ceasefire – into Israel. But equally, there are responsibilities on Israel.”

Prime Minister Gordon Brown (17 January): “Germany, France and Great Britain have just sent a letter to Israel and Egypt to say they will do everything we can to prevent arms trafficking.”

Situation on the ground

Israel’s unilateral ceasefire came into effect at 2am local time. Israeli forces were instructed to fire only if attacked or in response to rocket fire. Israel’s call of a unilateral ceasefire comes as a result of the belief that the damage already done to Hamas’s military infrastructure in the Gaza Strip Hamas will be effectively deter the movement from escalating rocket attacks against Israel in the future.

Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum declared on television on Saturday night that Hamas would not cease their attacks in spite of the ceasefire; and Seven Grad rockets were fired into Israel on Saturday night after the ceasefire was declared and a further eights Qassams and three mortars were fired on Sunday morning. Israel returned fire against the rocket launchers. But on Sunday morning, Hamas spokesmen announced their own one week ceasefire, giving Israel a week to withdraw.

It was anticipated that Hamas would attempt to fire the last shots in order to try and create the impression that they had effectively stood up to Israel military operation. The real test of Israel’s military success will be developments in the weeks and months to come.

Israel assesses the achievements of its military operation to include:

• Very heavy depletion of Hamas weapons stocks, rocket manufacturing and launching sites, infrastructure and smuggling tunnels.
• High number of Hamas fighters killed, including a number of senior commanders, technical experts and units who were trained in Iran.
• Establishing a new level of deterrence against Hamas militants and their allies in the region.
• Far better functioning and coordination of its forces than in the 2006 Second Lebanon War, re-establishing the IDF’s reputation and confidence.
• Low number of Israeli military casualties.
• Changing the international environment to bring a new multilateral commitment to prevent Hamas arming itself.

Israeli humanitarian efforts

Despite continue Hamas efforts to launch attacks, Israel is nevertheless using the ceasefire to help facilitate a major humanitarian effort to address the needs of the civilians in Gaza., Israel is operating a Joint Humanitarian Coordination Centre to work with international agencies to address humanitarian issue in the Gaza Strip. Israel’s humanitarian efforts are under the political leadership of Israeli cabinet minister Isaac Herzog. Current steps include:

• The opening of a forward emergency treatment centre for the people of Gaza at the Erez border crossing between Israel and Gaza. This will be a major emergency field hospital, operated by Israeli medical services with the cooperation of the Red Cross, exclusively to treat civilians from Gaza. Israel’s hospitals are also preparing to receive severely ill patients transferred from the Gaza Strip, as they did prior to the operation.
• Israel will coordinate with UNRWA today to ensure the access of a convoy of Palestinian electrical technicians to repair a technical malfunction at the Nahal Oz fuel depot. This would enable the Palestinians to resume pumping fuel needed by the power plant to generate electricity.
• Israel continued on Friday and Saturday to facilitate the transfer of truckloads of humanitarian aid and food into the Gaza Stip. On Friday trucks carrying 3333 tons of food and medical supplies entered and 115,000 litres of heavy duty diesel fuel for the power station. On Saturday a further 1135 tons of aid carried on 51 trucks entered and a further 115,000 litres of fuel. Since the beginning of the operation, 33,580 tons of humanitarian supplies have been transferred to Gaza in 1365 trucks. Also, 1,666,351 litres of fuel have been conveyed through Nahal Oz and Kerem Shalom crossings.
• Israel has already facilitated the repair of Gaza’s main sewage treatment facility in Beit Lahiya. The IDF coordinated with Palestinian technicians on Wednesday, taking up defensive positions allowing the Palestinian technicians to safely refuel the plants generators and replace a part, averting a potential major ecological threat.

Diplomatic efforts to ensure long-term benefits accrue from damage done to Hamas

Israel’s central focus now is working with the West and moderate Arab states to ensure that severe damage done to Hamas both in terms of its military capabilities and its prestige, will lay the groundwork for a long term reversal for the Iranian led extremist camp in the region. Key elements will be a network of agreements between Israel, the US, European powers and Egypt defining international efforts to prevent Hamas from rearming and for the recovery of the Gaza Strip. Britain has already committed itself to play a leading role in that process. The key diplomatic pieces already in place include:

– A US led NATO commitment to prevent Hamas rearming in the Gaza Strip.
Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice signed a memorandum of understanding in Washington on Friday in which the US committed to:

“work with regional and NATO partners to address the problem of the supply of arms and related materiel and weapons transfers and shipments to Hamas and other terrorist organizations in Gaza, including through the Mediterranean, Gulf of Aden, Red Sea and eastern Africa.”

The following day, in what appears to be a coordinated step, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert received a letter from the leaders of the key NATO allies Britain, Germany, Italy and France expressing their commitment to ensuring that weapons do not continue to reach the Gaza Strip. Speaking on Saturday Gordon Brown expressed his readiness to commit British naval force to stop smuggling to Gaza.

– Egyptian commitment to tackle smuggling
Israel has also received a proposal from the Egyptian President and has reached a series of understandings with the Egyptian government on various issues which relate to smuggling into the Gaza Strip.

– A major international summit to be hosted by Egypt today in Sharm el Sheikh, to be attended by Gordon Brown.
The summit is being attended by key European leaders as well as Turkey and is addressing the need to provide aid to Gaza and prevent Hamas from rearming. Gordon Brown has called for the ceasefire to be followed with work towards a final settlement. The international community now shares a common agenda with Israel and the moderate Palestinian camp to ensure that Hamas remains weakened.

Division within Hamas and within the Arab world

This conflict has uncovered more starkly than ever the divisions with Hamas, principally between its external leadership more heavily under the influence of Iran, and its internal leadership that must answer to the needs of the Palestinians in Gaza. A report in today’s Haaretz newspaper claims that Gaza based Hamas officials Ahmed Yousef and Ghazi Hamad have attacked the political bureau in Damascus, telling it: “You brought terrible disaster and death on Gaza.”

Developments over the weekend have also highlighted the extent of division within the Arab world between the extremist and moderate camps. A summit about the Gaza situation held in Qatar over the weekend, and attended by Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal, along with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad and Syrian President Assad, was not attended by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, or Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Western orientated Arab states and the moderate Palestinian camp have expressed anger at Hamas’s intransigence and share Israel’s sense of threat at the ambitions of Iran to spread a radical Islamist agenda throughout the region. The divisions are expected to be further illustrated at an Arab summit due to take place in Kuwait on Monday.