BICOM

What happened: The Biden administration is reportedly considering Iran’s request to remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) from the US’s terror blacklist as part of an agreement to re-enter to the JCPOA nuclear deal.

• In return, Iran would be willing to offer a public commitment to de-escalate its activities in the region, according to several Israeli and US sources.
• According to Axios, the Israeli government was taken by surprise of the potential move when former Vice President Mike Pence visited Israel last week and told Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid that Biden planned to delist the IRGC, in return for a narrower commitment not to target Americans.
• Yesterday, Defence Minister Benny Gantz approved the allocation of a significant budget to develop and produce a high-power laser system designed to intercept rockets, mortars, and UAVs.
• He said: “Today we are advancing towards a dramatic change in the battlefield and enhancing Israel’s security in the face of growing threats emanating from Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, supported by Iran and terrorist organisations.”
• Meanwhile, the IRGC have demanded that Iraq evict two Israeli bases that they claim have been operating in northern Iraqi Kurdistan.
• The IRGC spokesman said: “If the Iraqis don’t do it, we’ll take the matter into our own hands.”

Context: Early this week the IRGC fired 12 precision-guided ballistic missiles at what it called an Israeli Mossad base in Erbil, northern Iraq – although the Iraqi Kurdish government has vehemently denied the Iranian accusation of hosting Israeli intelligence bases.

• These are the type of missiles that the bulk of the Iranian precision project for Hezbollah focuses on.
• The attack marked an escalation in Iran operations against Israel. Whereas over the last years Iran’s efforts to attack “Israeli” targets has come from its proxies, Monday’s attack emanated from Iranian territory.
• Former President Donald Trump designated the IRGC as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in 2019 – the first time a state entity was blacklisted.
• The IRGC is Iran’s most powerful military branch for conducting operations abroad. However, under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei it has also accumulated significant political and economic strength inside Iran.
• The designation is not directly related to the JCPOA nuclear deal, so any decision would likely take the form of a separate bilateral understanding between the US and Iran.
• Earlier this week, a Telegram channel related to Iran published a video that included personal photos and documents seemingly belonging to Mossad chief David Barnea.
• Israeli officials believe that Iran’s decision to expose personal information and footage Barnea was meant to retaliate for last month’s bombing, which was attributed to Israel, in which hundreds of unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed in Kermanshah, Iran.
• The files that the Iran-affiliated hackers released were extracted from an old phone that belonged to the Mossad director’s wife. Neither Barnea’s computer nor his cell phone were hacked.

Looking ahead: The US has said no decision has been made on the IRGC designation.

• Even if the IRGC is removed from the US State Department’s FTO blacklist, the IRGC will remain on a separate terror list and subject to numerous sanctions, and criminal penalties could still be imposed on anyone doing business with individuals or businesses connected to the IRGC.
• The development plan for “Iron Beam” will be led by the research and development arm in the Ministry of Defence together with Rafael and Elbit Systems.
• Whilst Gantz put no timeframe on when the high-power laser system will be completed and become operational, Prime Minister Bennett recently stated that the system could deployed around Gaza within a year.