BICOM

The victims of Friday’s shooting attack near Hamra in the West Bank have been named as sisters and British nationals Maia Esther Dee and Rina Miriam Dee, aged 20 and 15.

• Their mother Lucy, 48, remains in critical condition at Hadassah Hospital Ein Kerem.
• The three, residents of the Israeli settlement of Efrat, were travelling by car near Hamra when they came under fire, causing their vehicle to crash. Terrorists then opened fire on the stricken vehicle.
• The victims’ father, Rabbi Leo Dee, a former senior rabbi at Radlett United Synagogue and assistant rabbi in Hendon, was travelling in a separate car.
• While no group has claimed responsibility for the attack, Hamas praised it as “a natural response to the occupation’s ongoing crimes against Al-Aqsa Mosque and its barbaric aggression against Lebanon and the steadfast Gaza.”

Israel continues to face and respond to multi-dimensional, multi-front security situations:

Rockets from Syria:

• Overnight Saturday, wo salvos, of three rockets each, were fired at Israel from Syria, triggering alarms in the Israeli Golan towns of Natur and Avnei Eitan.
• Three of the rockets entered Israeli territory, one being intercepted by Iron Dome and two landing in open fields.
• A Palestinian-Syrian militia calling itself the Al-Quds Brigade claimed responsibility for the first salvo.
• In response, the Israeli Air Force struck sites in the Syrian areas from which the rockets emanated – said by Syrian sources to be Tel al-Jamuah, located between Tasil and Nawa – including military sites, radars and artillery positions. Earlier, IDF artillery shelled the attack area, while unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) targeted the rocket launchers.

Tel Aviv Attack:

• In Tel Aviv on Friday, an Italian tourist was killed and seven others injured when a terrorist launched a car-ramming attack along several hundred metres of Kaufmann Street, near Charles Clore Park.
• Alessandro Parini, a 35-year-old lawyer from Rome, died in the attack, while hospital officials have disclosed that British nationals are amongst the injured.
• The perpetrator, killed at the scene, was later named as Yousef Abu Jaber, 45, an Israeli citizen and father of five from Kfar Qasim with no security record.
• A police official said that “A terrorist with no history of security issues, and not a young man, who carries out an attack like this was almost certainly influenced by the incitement.”
• Kfar Qasim Mayor Adel Badir said, “We denounce any attack against innocent people and call for all sides to show tolerance. This is not the way of Kfar Qasim residents. The city was and remains a place for coexistence and the pursuit of peace.”

Temple Mount:

• Overnight, hundreds of Palestinians once more barricaded themselves inside al Aqsa Mosque, with the Jordanian Waqf refusing to remove them despite commitments not to allow overnight stays in the mosque during Ramadan.
• While Defence Minister Yoav Gallant on Saturday took the unusual step of reinforcing the police in the Central District with troops from the IDF, Israeli forces declined to move to remove those inside on this occasion.
• This morning, groups of around 20 Jews at a time are being permitted to enter the compound under guard.

Context: The latest fatalities as a result of Palestinian terrorism takes the death toll on the Israeli side to eighteen since the beginning of this year. Thirty-two people were killed in terror attacks in 2022.

• Despite facing rockets attacks from Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip this week, none of these attacks have resulted in fatalities or injuries.
• The responses by the IDF have been calibrated according to the sector, but have all been measured and restrained, with no reported loss of lives. However, the response in Syria – targeting the source of fire – has been more robust than the response in Lebanon, where concerns over further reprisal attacks and escalation from Hezbollah have inspired restraint.
• Israel’s security establishment had anticipated that Ramadan would be the catalyst to spark attacks against Israel. Already a month ago, the explosion at the Megiddo Junction by a terrorist who managed to enter Israel from Lebanon with a heavy bomb raised alarm. The bomb which exploded prematurely was evidence of cooperation between Hezbollah and Palestinian terror groups. However at the time, Israel did not blame Hezbollah directly, again, partly to give them more scope to respond (or not) and avoid an escalation.
• The working understanding from Israeli intelligence is that the rocket fire from Lebanon was not Hezbollah, which has denied responsibility, but Palestinian groups operating out of southern Lebanon.
• However, cooperation and coordination between Hezbollah and Palestinian terror organisations, with the guidance of Iran has been growing.
• Similarly, the working assessment remains that Hamas in Gaza does not want to see an escalation there, but prefers to incite and encourage terrorism in the West Bank.
• To an extent, events around the Temple Mount influence all other theatres, due to the resonance of the site for Muslims and Jews.
• A pattern has developed whereby young men armed with rocks and  fireworks lock themselves into al Aqsa mosque at night in order to provoke police and create disturbances. On Saturday night the police let them remain inside the mosque and did not confront them, whilst facilitating Jewish visitors to the site and allowing the traditional Passover priestly blessings to be conducted at the Western Wall below.
• There is also concern that Iran is also trying to incite Israeli Arabs to join the attacks. The terror attack in Tel Aviv was committed by an Israeli Arab. Of significance, the leader of the Islamic Ra’am Party Mansour Abbas condemned the attack writing on twitter in Hebrew: “Especially during these difficult times, it is important for me to emphasise, as I have done many times in the past – as for the Tel Aviv terror attack, is not the way of the Arab society or Arab citizens in Israel. Arab leadership, particularly Ra’am and the Islamic Movement, will not condone any acts of violence against citizens, regardless of their religion, race, or ethnicity.”

Political context: Israel was already facing a severe domestic crisis, as a result of divisions caused by the government’s proposed judicial reforms.

• The reforms and the make-up of hard right members in the coalition are also compounding the perception of a fissure in relations with the US. In this context the Iranians may believe this is an opportune moment to attack Israel.
• This government is now marking its first 100 days in power. It is facing calls from within the right wing to act more robustly in responding to attacks. Yet for now a more considered approach, endorsed by the security establishment, to avoid escalation is being adopted.
• The tenure of Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, remains in doubt. Two weeks ago he was fired after warning of “clear, immediate and palpable danger” to Israel’s security as a result of the proposed reforms. The firing appears suspended for now and he remains in his role.
• Despite media speculation over a US-Israel rift, Gallant spoke with US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin and in a reassuring move the US announced that it was deploying a guided missile submarine to the Gulf and an aircraft carrier to the eastern Mediterranean.

Looking ahead: The manhunt in the West Bank for the terrorist who killed the Dee sisters is ongoing.

• An Iranian militia has warned of more planned attacks against Israeli owned vessels in the Gulf.
• Israel has called up Border Police reservists to augment their defensive posture particularly in Jerusalem.
• If the attacks on Israel continue there could be a larger call up of reserves.