BICOM

Yesterday’s chemical weapon attack in Syria has been heavily analysed by Israeli security experts and commentators, including the possibility of an Israeli military response.

Writing in Yediot Ahronot, security commentator Yossi Yehoshua stressed the “immediate action that needs to be taken is to increase Israeli humanitarian activity vis-‎à-vis Syria, along with diplomatic activity with a demand for effective international involvement over there”. He also evaluated the option of an Israeli military intervention “that will signal to the Syrian regime that such an act is unacceptable to Israel and that whoever carries it out will pay the price”.

Eschewing the possibility of a ground troop operation, Yehoshua nonetheless noted that “there are several other options in the IDF toolbox” and cited former director of Military Intelligence Amos Yadlin as a supporter for such an intervention. Speaking to Army Radio, Yadlin was one of the few people to urge direct action against Assad, calling the chemical attack a “crime against humanity” and encouraged Israel to destroy the planes used in Idlib “from afar,” in an apparent reference to a missile attack.

However, Yehoshua was quick to note that Israel’s top security echelon feel it is neither prudent nor appropriate for Israel to intervene militarily in the conflict. Similarly, former Mossad director Efraim Halevy told Army Radio this morning: “The Israeli intelligence establishment knows very well what is happening in Syria, and more or less what is located there, I don’t think that there is any chance of intervention.”

Writing in Maariv, Yossi Melman stressed the need to establish key facts about the attack, saying: “What happened, how it happened, and who is responsible. Even the most basic facts are controversial. Was it the Assad regime’s aircraft that dropped the chemical substance?”

Melman’s assessment is that the attack was most likely carried out by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, despite the Syrian Government unequivocally denying responsibility, and that the chemical used was most likely the nerve agent sarin.

He also notes that the attack comes as the Assad regime finds itself in the “best position it has been in for years after accomplishing numerous objectives.” Melman questioned whether the current US administration will be less inclined than its predecessor to intervene in Syria to prevent further chemical attacks, because US President Donald Trump “is even likely to be far more conciliatory towards Russia, which considers Assad’s survival one of its vital interests”.

Israeli military intelligence had thought that the al-Assad regime had held back around ten per cent of its chemical arsenal. Yesterday’s attack may lead to a reassessment that in fact far more may have been concealed.