BICOM

What happened: At least two protestors have died and 200 were wounded during protests in Iraq’s capital, Baghdad, yesterday.

• Thousands of protestors gathered in Tahrir Square to denounce alleged government corruption, poor public services, and high unemployment, while also criticising the dismissal of Lt. Gen. Abdul Wahab al-Saadi on Friday, an army commander who worked with US and coalition forces to defeat ISIS.
• Riot police reportedly used live bullets as well as stun grenades to stop protesters from crossing a bridge over the Tigris River to the Green Zone from Tahrir Square. The Green Zone hosts many government ministries. Several media outlets are reporting that two people died during the clashes between riot police and protestors. The Independent claim that 10 people died, saying this number was confirmed yesterday evening by a government adviser, citing a confidential news system used by government officials to which he had access.
• In a tweet, the populist nationalist Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr called on government leaders to launch an investigation.
• On Monday, Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi claimed that the government had “indications” that Israel might be responsible for a series of attacks against weapon depots belonging to Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. He explained that “some of the investigations carried out by Iraqi authorities provided important indications that Israel was behind some of the attacks” although he clarified that they still do not have “tangible evidence”. In response, a leader of the Shiite militia Sayyid al-Shuhada Brigades claimed that Abdul Mahdi’s statement was a “green light to take revenge”.

Context: Yesterday’s violence was the first major test for Iraq’s Prime Minister since coming to power a year ago.

• The protests were fuelled by the decision of Prime Minister Abdul Madhi to sack al-Saadi and move him to the Defence Ministry last week without explanation. Al-Saadi had become a well-known figure and a key part of the anti-ISIS fight.
• Iraq has witnessed massive protests in 2011, 2015 and 2018, the last of which erupted in the oil-rich south, heartland of the Shi’ite majority. Protesters were angered by collapsing infrastructure, frequent power cuts, and widespread corruption.
• A major poll in April 2019 by the National Democratic Institute found that 82 per cent of Iraqis were concerned or very concerned about corruption at the highest levels of government; 83 per cent perceived corruption to be getting worse.
• The US is concerned about the larger role that the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) are playing in Iraqi politics. Last week rockets landed in the Green Zone where the US embassy is located. It was the second such attack since May. Washington repeated its call for the Iraqi government to clamp down on Iranian proxy forces and to cut off relations with Tehran.
• Since 2004, the Iraqi Government increased from 850,000 employees to between seven and nine million in 2016.
• According to the World Bank, youth unemployment in Iraq is 25 percent. Almost $450 billion of public funds have disappeared since the US-led invasion that ousted Saddam Hussein in 2004, according to official figures.

Looking ahead: Iraq will likely witness more mass protests which could further destabilise the Government. However, any major reform to the political system will be curtailed by Iranian-backed militias, who have parliamentary representation and have benefited from the endemic corruption. In the short-term, Prime Minister Abdul Madhi will try to adopt new policies to tackle the demands of the protestors. At the weekly cabinet meeting on Tuesday, Abdul Madhi issued a statement promising jobs for graduates and instructing the oil ministry and other government bodies to start implementing a 50 per cent quota for local workers in contracts with foreign companies. Abdul Madhi will have to try and implement these measures as Iraq finds itself caught in the middle of US-Iran tensions in the region.