BICOM

What’s happening: Reports today suggest a level of cautious optimism over the prospects for a successful hostage release/ceasefire deal.

• Talks continued in Qatar yesterday, where Shin Bet Director Bar, Mossad Director Barnea, and Hostage Coordinator Maj. Gen. (res.) Alon all attended meetings alongside CIA Director Burns, Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani, and senior Egyptian officials.
• It is thought significant progress has been made in narrowing the gaps between Israel and Hamas’s positions, with particular breakthroughs regarding the IDF maintaining a presence in the Philadelphia corridor. Egypt and Qatar are said to have offered guarantees to prevent weapons smuggling into the Strip in return for Israel agreeing to vacate populated areas within the strategically essential corridor.
• Nonetheless, gaps remain over the inspection of Gazans returning to the northern Gaza Strip and over the duration of negotiations between the various stages of the deal. Hamas is thought to want the negotiations between phases one and two of the process to last a number of months, while Israel insists they take only a matter of weeks.
• Reports also suggest that Israel is not prepared to accommodate Hamas’s demand that northern Gazan residents be allowed to return to their former areas of residence without inspection. The prime minister’s office said “Israel will not concede inspection and preventing the movement of terrorists  and weapons to the northern Gaza Strip.”
• It is thought Israel has suggested that the UN play a role in the inspection process, but that it is not prepared to rely on the international body entirely.
• In parallel to the negotiations, military operations in the Strip continue. The IDF today said that “this week, the IDF and Shin Bet eliminated the terrorist Hassan Abu Kuik, Head of Operational Security in Hamas’ Internal Security Forces in the Gaza Central Camps. Hassan was a military operative, active in Hamas’ Emergency Bureau, and led numerous terror attacks against the State of Israel. In addition, the IDF eliminated the terrorist Naser Mehanna, a team commander in Hamas’ military intelligence.”
• Operations also continue against Hamas fighters located in UNRWA’s Headquarters in central Gaza. The IDF said, “over the past day, the troops located large quantities of weapons in the area of the headquarters, including explosive drones, grenades, explosive devices, snipers, mortar shells, rockets, and RPGs. In parallel, the troops directed an aerial strike on a combat compound in the area used by terrorists as a base to fire at IDF troops.”
• Intelligence-based operations also continue in Rafah, with dozens of Hamas fighters killed in the last day. Troops also dismantled several terror infrastructure sites rigged with explosives, as well as tunnel shafts in the area. In Shejaiya, troops destroyed tunnels and found equipment enabling fighters to remain underground for some time.
• Meanwhile, the death toll from Saturday’s strike on a school in Nuseirat has risen to at least 30, with Israel receiving international criticism for the incident. The IDF said: “Prior to the strike, numerous steps were taken in order to mitigate the risk of harming civilians, including the use of precise aerial surveillance and additional intelligence. The Hamas terrorist organisation systematically violates international law, exploiting civilian structures and population as human shields for its terror attacks against the State of Israel.”

Context: The so-called Biden proposal, based on an Israeli draft, which forms the basis of current talks, had already received the backing of both the US and UN. The breakthrough in this week’s talks stems largely from Hamas dropping its demand that a deal provide explicitly for a full ceasefire in the first phase.

• Analysts are suggesting that Hamas is feeling the pressure from the IDF’s intense operations in Gaza, and that awareness of the growing precariousness of its own position has led it to take a more flexible position in this round of talks.
• Its desire for a longer duration for negotiations between phases one and two of the process is thought to reflect a wish to buy time to resupply and refortify its position.
• IDF Chief of Staff Halevi on a visit to troops in central Gaza yesterday, said, “we apply military pressure in various ways. What we are doing in Rafah is different from what you are doing here, and what you are doing here is different from what is happening right now in Shejaiya or in the mission along the corridor or in the security area along the border.”
• “What is the common denominator between the different places? The common denominator is determination, the common denominator is a very high-quality way of doing these things and in the end, we go on the missions to destroy as much [terrorist] infrastructure as possible, to eliminate as many Hamas operatives as possible, to eliminate as many commanders as possible. In the end, it reduces Hamas’ capabilities, allows us to advance with the achievements, allows us to carry out a very important mission: pressure – we will continue operating to bring home the hostages.”
• There are also suggestions that domestic pressure in Gaza against Hamas is beginning to build. “An ever-increasing number of Gaza residents have mustered the courage to speak their mind on social media and even mainstream media outlets,” notes Yediot Ahronot  analyst Avi Issacharoff  today. “Hamas’s popularity in the West Bank might be at peak levels, but the impression is that things are changing in the Gaza Strip. The numerous IDF operations in Gaza City, Rafah and Khan Yunis have repeatedly displaced Palestinians. That has created anger and frustration.”
• The presence of the full senior Israeli delegation in Qatar is said to reflect the understanding that this round of negotiations is different, and the prospect of a deal more realistic.
• Defence Minister Gallant added to the cautious optimism by saying yesterday that “a limited window of opportunity has been opened before us to act on our ethical and moral duty to get the hostages back.” Of this significance of a successful deal, Gallant added that “The conditions that will be created in the wake of the deal will advance our national and security interests. Whereas the risks that might be created—the IDF and the security forces know how to overcome.”
• Optimism is tempered by an awareness that Hamas leader Sinwar may still look to sabotage an agreement, concluding that keeping the hostages as a Hamas asset is his best insurance against his own survival.
• The readiness of Netanyahu to conclude a deal, too, is far from certain, while far-right elements within the government have already demonstrated fierce opposition to a deal. Netanyahu has received assurances from both Benny Gantz and Opposition Leader Lapid, that they would support the government with a safety net to guarantee a deal.
• If the deal progresses, Netanyahu will likely face the greatest pressure once it becomes clear which Palestinian security prisoners are set to be released as part of the deal, as among them will be unrepentant terrorists guilty of the murder of Israeli citizens.
• Each instance of exposing Hamas tunnels in Gaza is significant, with recent reports suggesting that despite IDF success in other aspects of removing Hamas as a functioning military authority, a thorough decommissioning of the tunnels will take much more time.

Looking ahead: The Israeli security cabinet is set to meet today to discuss the progress made in negotiations, with more Israeli officials set to join the delegations in Egypt and Qatar.

• Hostage families and their supporters are marching from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. They are expected to reach the prime minister’s office on Saturday.