BICOM

The north: Yesterday and today northern Israel has come under heavy attack from Hezbollah. Unconfirmed reports suggest that over 200 missiles and UAVs have been been launched so far.

• The escalation follows the IDF yesterday killing Muhammad Neamah Naser, commander of Hezbollah’s Aziz Unit which is responsible for firing from southwestern Lebanon at Israeli territory.
• In response, Hezbollah fired over 100 rockets towards the Nefah base headquarters of the Golan Division yesterday afternoon. Other rockets were fired at the headquarters of the 769th Brigade in Kiryat Shmona, the Kela base, and the Zerait outpost.
• Sirens sounded in northern Israel, as some of the rockets were intercepted, some fell in the Kiryat Shmona area, and the majority fell in open areas. No injuries were reported, though fire fighters had to extinguish a number of blazed caused by falling rockets.
• Overnight, IDF fighter jets struck Hezbollah terror targets in southern Lebanon, including a military structure in the area of Chihine and three terrorist infrastructure sites in the area of Blat. In addition, IDF soldiers fired in order to remove a threat in the area of Chebaa in southern Lebanon.
• Yesterday also saw an off-duty Israeli soldier killed in a stabbing attack at a shopping mall in the northern city of Karmiel. Sgt. Aleksandr Iakiminskyi managed to kill the assailant, later named as Jawwad Omar Rubia, an Israeli citizen from the nearby Arab town of Nahf, before collapsing and later succumbing to his injuries. A second soldier was injured in the attack.

Palestinian arena: Two IDF soldiers were killed fighting in Gaza yesterday. In separate incidents, Cpt. Elay Elisha Lugasi, 21, a team commander in the 7th Armored Brigade’s 75th Battalion, was killed fighting in Shejaiya and Cpt. Roy Miller, 21, a platoon commander in the Givati Brigade’s Rotem Battalion. Other troops were injured in both attacks.

• An anti-aircraft missile launched from the Gaza Strip struck a home in the evacuated southern Israeli community of Kfar Maimon yesterday. Damage was caused but no injuries were reported.
• The IDF said it had carried out airstrikes in Rafah, as well as drone strikes in the Netzarim Corridor, killing several Hamas operatives.
• In Shejaiya, the IDF said it had “destroyed tunnels routes in the area and eliminated dozens of terrorists in close-quarters combat, with tank fire, and in aerial strikes. In one incident, IDF troops eliminated seven terrorists at close quarters.”
• Meanwhile, the Mossad released a brief statement yesterday confirming that Israel was studying Hamas’s latest response to hostage release/ceasefire proposals. The terms of the proposal remain those outlined by President Biden in May – a three-stage process leading to the release of all hostages. Hamas has continued to insist that proposals do not explicitly enough provide for the end of the war in Gaza.
• Elsewhere, on the Palestinian front the IDF announced yesterday that on Tuesday it carried out a strike on four terror operatives who were a significant part of terrorist infrastructure in Nur Shams. Muhammad Shehade, Muhammad Kanouah, Yazid Shafa, and Namer Ibrahim were killed after being identified attempting to plant explosives designed to attack IDF soldiers operating in the area.
• In the West Bank, Israeli Civil Administration officers and security forces yesterday dismantled an illegal Jewish settlement that had recently been constructed on Oz Zion Hill, in the area of Giv’at Asaf. Troops came under attack from masked Israelis who smashed the windows of an IDF truck and hurled explosives.
• IDF Chief of Staff Halevi called it “a severe, violent incident, that must be denounced and condemned. The law must be quickly and swiftly exacted upon the rioters who attacked the security forces as they attempted to carry out their mission”.

Context: Incidents across the last few days indicate a further ratcheting up of tensions in Israel’s north, where Hezbollah continues to insist that its operations against Israel are tied to the continuation of fighting in Gaza. On Tuesday, Hezbollah deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem insisted that “If there is a ceasefire in Gaza, we will stop without any discussion.”

• There is therefore hope that if a successful deal is reached between Israel and Hamas, quiet might return to the northern front, a diplomatic resolution to Hezbollah’s border claims implemented, and the nearly 80,000 Israelis displaced from homes in the north allowed to return.
• The failure to secure a deal with Hamas for far, however, is leading to splits between Prime Minister Netanyahu and the military and security establishments. The latter see securing a deal as the best way to prevent a destructive war with Hezbollah, and responded angrily to Netanyahu’s statement yesterday that was strongly critical of Hamas’s latest response to the existing proposal.
• So far, this latest heavy barrage from Lebanon has not caused any injuries. Most rockets have either been intercepted or landed in open areas. However, such large numbers of rockets fired – including directed at populated towns like Naharya – run the risk of causing significant casualties which in turn lead to a further escalation.
• Lebanese sources say that Naser, who joined Hezbollah in 1986, survived several previous assassination attempts by Israel, and that he was associated with the Hezbollah trend of launching missiles which photographed the target, thus producing videos to be used as Hezbollah propaganda.
• According to the IDF, “Naser entered his position in 2016 and led the firing of rockets and anti-tank missiles from southwestern Lebanon toward Israeli civilians, communities, and security forces. Furthermore, Naser directed a large number of terror attacks toward Israel both during and before the war, and he previously held several central roles within the Hezbollah terrorist organisation.”
• “Naser was the counterpart of Sami Taleb Abdullah, the commander of the Nasser Unit, who was eliminated last month. Together, they served as two of the most significant Hezbollah terrorists in southern Lebanon.”
• Hezbollah announced his death by referring to him as a ‘shahid commander’, an honorific reserved for senior commanders.
• According to Hezbollah – which unlike Hamas provides the numbers of its operatives killed – 362 of its fighters have now died since it joined Hamas in attacking Israel on October 8th.
• The organisation is also coming under increasing domestic criticism in Lebanon for inflaming tensions with Israel, sacrificing the country’s own needs to those of Iran, and risking the country’s security.

Looking ahead: The government is coming under increasing pressure from families in the north for the situation to be resolved by the start of the school year on September 1st.

• However, military officials have expressed concern over setting such civilians deadlines influencing military considerations.
• Operations in Rafah are still expected to conclude within two to four weeks, after which there is hope that a hostage deal might be secured.