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What’s happened: A bill to dissolve the Knesset and hold fresh elections was introduced to the Knesset yesterday by National Unity Party Chairperson MK Pnina Tamano-Shata.

• Tamano-Shata said of the move: “October 7 was a tragedy that requires us to return and receive the people’s confidence and to form a broad and stable unity government that will be able to lead us safety to face the huge challenges in security, in the economy and primarily, in Israeli society.”
• A National Unity Party statement then said “the person who chose to dismantle the emergency government at the country’s hardest hour was Netanyahu, who chooses, time after time, his personal interest over the national interest. Israel needs a government that promotes unity, not incitement, returning the hostages, returning the residents of the north home, and strives to real victory, not to slogans. Netanyahu, it is still not too late to come to your senses—either we win together, or you continue on your own in the divide and conquer method.”
• A Likud statement in response said “at the height of war, Israel needs unity, not division, dismantling the government is a prize for Sinwar, capitulation to international pressure and undermines the efforts to free our hostages.”

Context: National Unity’s move to dissolve the Knesset signifies a highly unusual instance of a party trying to unseat a government of which it is currently a part. Previously a part of the opposition, Gantz took his party into the government on an emergency basis early in the war in Gaza. Both he and Gadi Eisenkot immediately joined both the security cabinet and the smaller war cabinet (Eisenkot as an ‘observer’).

• In a speech earlier this week, Eisenkot, whose son was killed early in the fighting in Gaza, said “it is clear that this government needs to be replaced as soon as possible.” He called for elections to be held sometime between September and December this year.
• Eisenkot also attacked the government’s narrative around ‘total victory’ and the operation in Rafah. “Anyone who says that we’ll disband three battalions in Rafah and after that be able bring back the hostages is sowing false illusions,” he said. “This is a much more complex event. The truth is that it will take three to five years to stabilise [Gaza], and then many more years to establish another regime.”
• Eisenkot also commented on the level of influence he and Gantz were now having in government. “I can’t ignore that recently our influence has been reduced,” he said. “Political and other considerations have been inserted into decisions that we voted on behind closed doors.”
• Both Gantz and Eisenkot have been deeply frustrated by the government’s inability or refusal to present a vision for Gaza ‘the day after’ Hamas. In early May, Gantz publicly threatened to leave the government unless Netanyahu committed to a plan.
• At that time, Gantz presented the Security Cabinet with a demand to formulate a plan which should include six objectives: the hostages’ return; toppling Hamas and demilitarising the Gaza Strip; deciding on an alternative regime for Gaza; a return home by the residents of northern Israel by September 1; promoting normalisation; and endorsing the plan to broaden military service to all Israelis.
• Even if Gantz were to resign from the government and take his party’s MKs with him, this would still leave the coalition with the governing majority (64 seats in a 120-seat Knesset) it enjoyed before October 7^th.
• The bill thus has no chance of passing unless MKs from other government factions can be persuaded to vote in favour. It is highly unlikely that five MKs from Netanyahu’s Likud can be persuaded to do so, even though some have recently echoed Gantz’s frustration that a commission of inquiry into the events of October 7^th has not yet been formed.
• It is also possible, though not likely, that coalition MKs from amongst the ultra-Orthodox factions United Torah Judaism and Shas could vote in favour of dissolving the government.
• Elements from within these factions have recently threatened to quit the government unless legislation is passed securing the right of ultra-Orthodox Israelis to avoid being drafted into the IDF.
• Legislation to codify this exemption was considered this time last year, but not floated due to opposition from within the government and fears that Israel’s Supreme Court could strike it down as being an infringement of the principle of equality.
• Given their differences with Netanyahu over the prosecution of the war, pressure from opponents of Netanyahu and the Likud for Gantz to quit the government has been mounting of late.
• After months of polling showing National Unity well ahead of Likud, and Gantz comfortably leading Netanyahu on suitability to be prime minister, Channel 12’s latest poll from yesterday showed a shift. The two parties are now much closer – National Unity on 25 and Likud on 21 – while Netanyahu now leads Gantz 36 to 30 percent on who would make the better prime minister.
• Polls also indicate that a 60 percent majority of National Unity voters believe the party should quit the government.
• This week, Yisrael Beiteinu Chairman Avigdor Lieberman initiated a so-called opposition ‘war room’ with Leader of the Opposition Yair Lapid, and Gideon Saar, who withdrew his New Hope faction from the government after he was excluded from the war cabinet.

Looking ahead: Large public protests demanding that the priority should be securing the return of the hostages, now held for 237 days, have coalesced with wider anti-government protests demanding fresh elections. The protests are likely to continue and perhaps grow.

• Newly-elected Labour leader Yair Golan will be seeking to harness that protest energy, and some of the highly organised infrastructure which developed during last year’s anti-judicial reform protests, into greater Knesset representation for the Israeli left and other anti-Netanyahu factions.
• On Sunday, a nine judge panel of the High Court of Justice will convene to hear the government’s plans for the question of the ultra-Orthodox and the military draft.
• When Gantz made his ultimatum to Netanyahu, he gave June 8 as a deadline to formulate a ‘day after’ plan. Analysts are now suggesting he might withdraw National Unity sooner.