BICOM

What’s happening: Today is the forth Friday of Ramadan, and also Iranian-led Quds (Jerusalem) Day.

• Tens of thousands of Muslim worshippers are expected to attend services on the Temple Mount / al-Aqsa Mosque.
• The Police in Jerusalem have augmented their forces with around 2,300 police officers, Border Police troops and reinforcements from across the country deployed throughout the capital, particularly in East Jerusalem and the Old City.
• In the West Bank, the IDF remains on a heightened state of alert having also deployed reinforcements across the sector over the last few days.
• The Israel Airports Authority announced that the airspace near the northern and southern borders has been closed to civilian flights.

Stoking the Fire: Since the Islamic Revolution, Iran has used Quds Day to rally against Israel.

• This year Iran is promoting ‘resistance’ in the West Bank as a way to ‘protect’ Jerusalem.
• Following Iran’s reconciliation with Saudi Arabia, Iran is encouraging all the Arab and Islamic countries (both Shia and Sunni) to act in unison against Israel.
• Hamas has called for a large turnout of both Palestinians and Israeli Arabs to attend prayers today in al-Aqsa.
• Ziyad al-Nakhlah, the leader of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), is visiting Iraq this week, he also called on the Arab world to unite against Israel, saying, “Positive steps are happening in the region. We will continue until we expel the Zionist invaders from our country.”
• Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, is expected to make a live address later today and share a digital platform with Iran’s president, Ibrahim Raisi.
• There has been growing cooperation among Iranian-supported terror organisations, including high level meetings of Hezbollah, Hamas and PIJ leaders in Beirut.

Context: As in previous years Prime Minister Netanyahu decided to prevent non-Muslims from visiting the Temple Mount until the end of Ramadan.

• The decision had the unanimous backing of Defence Minister Gallant, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Halevi and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar.
• National Security Minister Ben Gvir described the decision as “capitulation to terrorism.” According to Ben Gvir, “The lack of Jews’ presence on the Temple Mount will automatically result in a depletion of the police force on the mount, which will create fertile ground for huge displays of incitement to murder Jews and even to a scenario of stone-throwing at Jewish worshippers at the Western Wall. When terrorism strikes at us, we need to strike back at it with tremendous force, not to capitulate to it and its whims.”
• The Chief Rabbinate, as usual, supported the decision, as according to their interpretation of Jewish Law it is forbidden for Jews to ascend the Temple Mount.
• Following last week’s rocket attacks from Syria, Lebanon, Gaza Strip and two deadly terror attacks, this week has been relatively quiet. However, the IDF has continued to operate against terror cells in the West Bank. Five people were arrested in Jenin suspected of planning an imminent terror attack.
• Earlier in the week two gunmen were killed in the Nablus area, after they shot at an IDF position.
• The Israeli police entered the al-Aqsa mosque last Wednesday based on intelligence that a pre-planned attempt by hundreds of young men to bring rocks and explosives into the mosque was aimed start violence and unrest. No-one was killed, and there were no serious injuries, but footage of police violence contributed to the spike in attacks by Palestinian terror groups.
• In Israel’s response to rockets from the Gaza Strip last week, the Air Force dropped 50 tons of explosives on Gaza, targeting Hamas military sites. No Gazans were killed in the strikes.
• The response to the rockets from Lebanon was even lighter, so as not to risk further escalation. The Israeli assessment was that the rocket fire from southern Lebanon was a Hamas or an independent Palestinian initiative, with Hezbollah maintaining plausible deniability.  However, Iran is certainly encouraging a more coordinated effort and ratcheting up the pressure.

Looking ahead: The police are aware that Hamas will be looking to exploit any rioting or attacks as a propaganda success.

• Iron Dome missile defence systems are on a high state of alert, deployed around the Gaza Strip and the northern borders.
• The ban on civilian flights is expected to remain in place until Sunday evening.