BICOM

What happened: Over the weekend US mediator and Special Envoy for International Energy Affairs, Amos Hochstein presented the Israeli and Lebanese governments with a final draft of the maritime agreement.

• At the cabinet meeting yesterday Prime Minister Lapid related to the emerging deal noting, “For over a decade, Israel has been trying to reach this deal. The security of the north will be strengthened. The Karish field will operate and produce natural gas. Money will flow into the state’s coffers and our energy independence will be secured. This deal strengthens Israel’s security and Israel’s economy.”
• While the full details of the deal are yet to be revealed, a senior government source briefed diplomatic correspondents, outlining the main parameters of the deal:
  • Israel will receive recognition of the three mile coastal security border, immediately off Israeli’s northern coastline, referred to as the “line of buoys.”
  • Confirmation that the Karish gas field will be under full Israeli control.
  • The more northern gas field,  Kana (that lies in the disputed area) will be developed by Lebanon, with Israel receiving a percentage of the profit once it becomes operational.
• Defence Minister Gantz also related to the emerging deal, “this agreement is at heart an economic one. If and when it is signed, we, Lebanon and its citizens which have suffered such a terrible crisis will enjoy the fruits of it for many years to come,” adding, “there is no question that it will bolster stability, deterrence, and in the long term will weaken Lebanon’s dependence on Iran, which gives Lebanon gas and many other things.”
• In parallel, in Lebanon the US Ambassador presented the draft agreement to Christian President Michel Aoun and Sunni Prime Minister Najib Mikati which like Israel, will now study the details of deal.
• The Lebanese leaders also consulted with Speaker of the Parliament, the Shiite leader, Nabih Berri who described the draft agreement as “positive,” quoted in Lebanese media he said, “In principle, the draft matches Lebanon’s demand not to create a link between approving the maritime and land borders.”
• Also over the weekend, Hezbollah leader Nasrallah struck a more conciliatory tone and seemed to back the deal, saying, “The Lebanese people will be the biggest beneficiary of completing the process of defining the maritime border.”

Political angle: The contours of the agreement were heavily criticised by Leader of the Opposition Netanyahu, claiming Lapid is, “giving Hezbollah parts of Israel’s sovereign territory, together with a massive pool of natural gas that belongs to you, the citizens of Israel. Furthermore, he’s doing it without any discussion in the Knesset and without a national referendum. Lapid has no mandate to give parts of our sovereign territory and sovereign assets that belong to all of us to an enemy state. On November 1 we will give Israel back strong leadership, experienced leadership, one that will protect all of our security.”

• Lapid responded, “Netanyahu, for 10 years you failed at your attempts to obtain an agreement like this. At least now, don’t harm Israel’s security interests and help Hezbollah with irresponsible statements.”
• The issue of an interim government signing an international treaty during an election campaign is considered problematic However, the Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara expected to defend the decision if a petition reaches the High Court of Justice.
• According to some legal experts, the Israeli government is expected to argue that the status of an economic zone at sea does not have the same status as sovereign land.

Context:  A deal would be the first time Israel and Lebanon would reach any type of agreement. Those backing the deal point to the mutual security and economic advantages.

• Israel has insisted there is no connection between reaching a maritime deal and beginning gas production from the Karish gas field. However Hezbollah has threated to attack, if Israel were to begin pumping gas before the maritime issue is resolved.

• The three mile “line of buoys” was unilaterally marked by Israel after their withdrawal from the security zone in 2000.  It marked the point to which the Israeli navy operated unilaterally.  It also ensures that no part of Israel’s coastline can be directly seen / targeted from Lebanon.  Having international recognition for this line was Israel’s security red line.
• The Kana field has not yet been developed, at this point it is not clear its size and economic significance, but Karish is regarded as larger and more profitable.
• The US are keen to complete the deal while Lebanese President Michel Aoun (who supports the deal) is still in office. His term is due to end at the end of the month, however the Lebanese parliament cannot agree on a  candidate to succeed him.
• The hope is that if the deal is signed Lebanon can begin to develop their own off shore gas, that will provide valuable economic relief.  It will also create a mutual deterrence and disincentive Hezbollah from attacking the Israeli rig.
• The natural gas would benefit Lebanon and limit the need to rely on energy resources from Iran.
• The significance of reaching a maritime border, could, in time, lead to further Israel – Lebanon talks on their disputed land border.     

Looking ahead: Both Israeli and Lebanese legal experts are studying the details of the deal.  Prime Minister Lapid and Defence Minister Gantz support the deal and are expected to bring it to a vote in the security cabinet on Thursday.

• If both countries approve the deal, it will be passed onto the United Nations to formally ratify the agreement according to international law.