BICOM

What happened: An Iranian drone struck an oil tanker partly owned by an Israeli company off the coast of Oman on Tuesday night.

• The Pacific Zircon, flying the Liberian flag was hit by a Shahed-136 Unmanned Ariel Vehicle (UAV). The hit caused damage but no injuries.
• Yesterday both Israeli and US security sources claimed the UAV was launched from Iran by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
• US Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, the head of United States Central Command (CENTCOM), said in a statement, “This unmanned aerial vehicle attack against a civilian vessel in this critical maritime strait demonstrates, once again, the destabilising nature of Iranian malign activity in the region.”
• According to CENTCOM, last week the US 5th Fleet operating in the Gulf  intercepted  a “massive volume of explosive material” being smuggled from Iran to Yemen.
• Yesterday the Israeli Navy and the Ministry of Defence announced the completion of an advanced interception test of the Iron Dome missile defence system that can be deployed on a naval vessel; the C-Dome.
• Defence Minister Gantz commented, “The operationalisation of the C-Dome system is a significant milestone for the State of Israel’s naval defence capabilities…. Israel is continuing to build and strengthen its defence and attack capabilities – and will continue to keep its defensive edge in the area, protect its assets, its infrastructure and first and foremost – the lives and safety of the citizens of Israel.”

Context:  Overall this modus operandi is familiar, it was the 11th attack attributed to Iran in the Gulf in the last six years, but the first in a year.

• Some of those attacks were also against Israeli-owned ships. The attack resembles the strike on the Mercer Street tanker last summer, that was also partly Israeli owned, which killed a British and a Romanian onboard.
• The naval theatre is just one domain that Israel and Iran are in active combat.  This latest attack could be part of an open Iranian account seeking revenge for various alleged covert Israeli operations inside Iran.
• It could also be a response to the latest airstrike targeting an Iranian weapons convoy on the Syria-Iraq border.  Or to distract from a failed Iranian assassination plot in Georgia against an Israeli businessman revealed earlier this week.
• The Shahed-136 UAV is the same weapon that the Iranians have supplied Russia to use against Ukraine.
• On one level this latest attack suggests a new boldness by Iran as this time they were prepared to launch the strike from Iranian territory and not from Yemen, where they have some deniability.  Alternatively, the strike suggests desperation to deliver an delete an operational achievements, amid numerous failures and possibly distract attention from the ongoing domestic protests.
• Israel is increasing its cooperation with regional Gulf allies on security issues.  In the past year Israel’s most senior leaders – Bennett, Lapid and Defence Minister Gantz – have visited Bahrain, with the latter signing a defence agreement. All three visited the base of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet and also met with US Naval Forces Central Command Commander Vice Adm. Brad Cooper. Following Gantz’s visit, it was agreed to assign an IDF Naval officer to be permanently based in Bahrain to enhance security cooperation.

 Looking ahead:  With the World Cup starting this weekend in Qatar, some Israeli officials interpreted the timing and location of the attack as an Iranian warning of further intent to undermine the tournament and potentially target Israelis.

• Although Israel and Qatar have no formal diplomatic ties, Israeli fans have been allowed to travel.  However, they have been warned to stay vigilant due to the presumed presence of Iranian operatives inside Qatar.