BICOM

What happened: Israel Defence Force (IDF) Chief of Staff Lt-Gen Aviv Kochavi published a new five year ‘Momentum Plan’ yesterday and warned that “Israel’s central strategic challenge lies in the northern arena… at the heart of it are the entrenchment of Iranian and other forces in Syria and the precision missile project.” He said the situation in the North and South is “tense and fragile and may deteriorate into conflict.” But he added that “our enemies are not interested in war.” The new Momentum Plan will replace the Gideon Plan and consists of:

• Substantial investment in mid-sized drones, precision-guided missiles (from the US) and anti-missile batteries.
• Improvements to intelligence gathering, including creating a new task force combining Military Intelligence, the Air Force and the IDF’s three regional commands. It will also expand the use of technology including artificial intelligence and big data to identify potential targets for military strikes.
• Upgrading infantry equipment and refocusing training exercises towards urban combat with less emphasis on field manoeuvres.

Context:  The Momentum Plan is guided by the principle that a future war must be won quickly, requiring the military to be ready with a list of targets, the weapons needed to hit them and the ability to do so rapidly.

• The IDF estimates that Hezbollah has around 130,000 rockets and missiles that can strike Israeli strategic sites and population centres.
• Israel has sought to prevent Iran’s military build-up in Syria by carrying out attacks on Iranian targets and preventing the transfer of Iranian weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Since 2017 it has carried out hundreds of attacks.
• In the south, the IDF is preparing for the possibility that Islamic Jihad will act independently, or with Iranian guidance, to escalate the situation or attack Israel if the situation in the north escalates. The IDF assessment is that Hamas still wants to reach a truce arrangement with Israel, but that Islamic Jihad is determined to commit a major terrorist attack.
• Israel is concerned about an emboldened Iran since President Trump announced the withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria and his perceived weak response to the downing of a US drone in the Persian Gulf and the attack on Saudi oil facilities.
• An estimated 40 billion shekels (£8.8 billion) will be required to pay for new weapons and equipment over a ten year period.  The Finance Ministry has not approved the necessary budget increase, instead suggesting the Ministry of Defence first restructure their pension payments to the professional army.
• Due to the political deadlock there has been no budget approved for 10 months.

Looking ahead: The IDF plan will formally take effect on 1 January 2020, but the IDF intends to implement elements of it in the weeks ahead.

• The IDF remains on a high state of alert ,as Lt-Gen Kochavi noted Israel’s enemies have “increased its pace of preparations.”
• The security situation and / or the necessity to pass a new budget may act as a catalyst for the political parties to reach a compromise and avoid a third election that would result in a 6 month delay before a new full time Government takes office.