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What’s happening: All the parties are in final campaigning mode ahead of Election Day tomorrow.

• On Friday night the final polls were published, all three major TV stations, (Kan, Channel 12 & 13)  concluded that the pro- Netanyahu bloc would win 60 seats, which is not quite enough to form a majority government.
• Following the signing of the maritime border agreement with Lebanon last week, Prime Minister Lapid yesterday visited the Karish platform that has now started to produce natural gas.  Lapid said: “This place here is the energy and economic future of the State of Israel. Gas production from the Karish field will lower energy prices in Israel, turn Israel into a regional energy supplier, and help Europe take on its energy crisis. From here flows the gas that promises a lower cost of living. This is a huge achievement for the State of Israel.”
• Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu spent Saturday night campaigning in the ultra-Orthodox town of Bnei Brak, in an effort to encourage the religious public to vote.
• His appearance there was criticised by his ultra-Orthodox allies.  With former leader of UTJ Moshe Gafni insisting they do not need Netanyahu’s help.  Instead suggesting Netanyahu focus his campaign efforts on Likud voters.
• Itamar Ben Gvir, the leader of the Jewish Power faction and number two on the Religious Zionist Party announced yesterday that he would seek to be appointed public security minister in the next government.
• Netanyahu responded saying, “Ben Gvir will be a minister only if I form the next government, and for that to happen, the Likud has to be larger than Lapid.”
• Prime Minister Lapid also related to Ben Gvir’s popularity in the polls, saying, “I would prefer that he not be part of the political establishment because he is dangerous… people don’t know who he is and what he represents, and don’t realise the risk he poses to the security establishment and to IDF soldiers.”
• Meanwhile, one of the leaders of Hadash-Ta’al, Ayman Odeh has appealed to Jewish left-wing voters to ensure his party crosses the threshold. Odeh said: “I’m calling on all the democratic Jews. In the upcoming election a vote for Hadash-Ta’al is both a strategic vote that will block Netanyahu and Ben Gvir, and a values-based vote for the real left.”
• On Saturday night the Labour Party held a rally in Zion Square in Jerusalem in memory of former Prime Minister Rabin. Party leader Merav Michaeli said:  “Yitzhak Rabin was murdered for political reasons in cooperation with the Benjamin Netanyahu and Itamar Ben Gvir of that time…. We’re seeing the same thing, with Jewish settlers attacking IDF soldiers and a 70-year-old woman. This is where the die was cast. We’ve come here, to this square, to rescind the decree and the curse that we’ve all been living with for so many years since then.”

Context: The aggregated polling has been remarkably stable for the last couple of months.  The Likud remains the largest party, followed by Yesh Atid.  The surprise has been the Religious Zionist Party that polls have shown being the third largest party.

• One of the keys of the election will be voter turnout.  At the last election, turnout was down overall to 67.2 per cent. The previous election a year earlier there was 71.5 per cent.
• There are several factors suggesting turnout may again be down such as voter apathy and weariness towards the process that has failed to produce a stable government for the last four years. The perceived deadlock of the blocs and another potentially inconclusive result also contribute to the lack of enthusiasm. There is heightened concern how these factors particularly influence ultra-Orthodox and Arab voters.
• Rain is expected on election day which although trivial, could also dissuade some people from voting.
• There is heightened concern how these factors particularly influence ultra-Orthodox and Arab voters.
• Voter turnout in Arab communities is always traditionally lower than the national average and the lack of a unified Arab list compounds the apathy.  The final polling suggested voter turnout in Arab communities around 50%.
• For the smaller parties, the major concern remains passing the 3.25 per cent (four seat) electoral threshold.  In the anti-Netanyahu block, all three Arab parties are close to that mark, as well as the two left wing parties Labour and Meretz.

Looking ahead: Polls open tomorrow morning and close at 10pm local time.  At that point the exit polls are published.

• The actual results will be counted overnight and by Wednesday morning they should be near completion, however it could take longer for the final results to be confirmed, until the completion of counting the overseas ballots and calculating the surplus vote agreements.