BICOM

What’s happened: Whilst cross-border fire between Israel and Hezbollah continues, both France and US are trying to reach a ceasefire agreement.

• French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne met with Israeli counterparts this week, after first visiting Lebanon where he met with figures close to Hezbollah. He said, “I call on Israeli authorities to take a public position on these French plans that will enable us to move to the next stage.”
• According to the Hezbollah affiliated Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, the first stage of the French proposal demands Hezbollah withdrawal its forces 10 km north of the border and remove their outposts close to the border.
• In the second phase, the Lebanese Armed Forces will be deployed along the border and Israel will stop flying over Lebanese airspace. In the third stage, the parties will discuss demarcating the land border between them.
• In parallel, US envoy Amos Hochstein, who brokered the Israel-Lebanon Maritime agreement of 2022, met with Israeli Defence Minister Gallant last week, while Israel’s Kan Radio reported yesterday that Israel has shown a willingness to discuss revisions to the border with Lebanon as part of a US framework.
• On the ground, Hezbollah continued to attack and Israel respond. Yesterday four rockets were launched towards Mount Dov from Lebanon, three were intercepted, and one landed in an open area. Israel returned fire to the source.
• According to Syrian sources, Israel attacked a military site in the Damascus area from the air last night. The Syrian army reported eight injured and damage caused to a Syria intelligence base.
• Earlier this week, Samir Geagea, leader of the Christian Lebanese Forces Party, criticised Hezbollah for inflaming tensions with Israel and called on its forces to withdraw from border areas.

Context: Since October 8th, Hezbollah has maintained a threshold of violence at a level it deems will divert resources away from Gaza to the northern front, but stopping short of necessitating an immediate Israeli ground offensive.

• In that time Hezbollah has attacked Israeli military bases and civilian communities close to the Lebanese border on a near daily basis, launching over 3,300 drone, rockets, and anti-tank guided missile (ATGMs) strikes. Nine Israeli civilians, and eleven soldiers have been killed with approximately 80,000 civilians internally displaced and forced to relocate to hotels in safer parts of the country. While Israel has carried out a similar number of counter-strikes against Hezbollah targets.
• Hezbollah has sought to maintain a series of observation posts keeping northern Israeli communities and military basis under permanent surveillance. ATGMs are regularly fired at civilian workers, vehicles, and homes as well as military targets.
• Israel’s response to these attacks has been a combination of air and artillery strikes into Lebanon targeting Hezbollah’s military leadership and infrastructure. While primarily destroying targets in the south of the country, some Israeli airstrikes have been reported as far north as Baalbeck and the Beqaa Valley. According to recent figures, 290 Hezbollah operatives and around 40 fighters affiliated with Palestinian terror organisations have been killed by Israeli airstrikes along with one Lebanese soldier and at least 60 civilians.
• Israel’s Defence Minister recently claimed that the IDF had killed half of Hezbollah’s local commanders in southern Lebanon, and that the rest have been forced into hiding. While disputed by Hezbollah, this claim underlines Israel’s approach to dismantling their  military capabilities.
• Israeli statements indicate that Hezbollah’s special forces, drone, rocket, and anti-tank missile commanders have been prioritised in targeted killings. Hezbollah rarely confirms the role or seniority of those killed in Israeli strikes, instead generally referring to them as martyred fighters without indicating their rank or position.
• While Hezbollah honoured the week long truce between Israel and Hamas in November without being party to negotiations, the group maintains that it will not engage in concrete discussions until a ceasefire has been reached in Gaza.
• Israel views its current paradigm of 80,000 citizens being internally displaced due to Hezbollah’s aggression as untenable and intolerable, and the longer they remain unable to safely return to their homes, the higher the risk of a military escalation in southern Lebanon.
• It remains uncertain when or if a ground offensive against Hezbollah would be launched, but the most anticipated scenario suggests that once Israel completes their campaign in Gaza, the focus will switch to the north.
• Israel continues to insist on the robust implementation of UN Resolution 1701 passed at the end of the Second Lebanon War in 2006. Most significantly it stipulates Hezbollah forces, be pushed back as far as the Litani River ensuring Israeli civilian are out of range of Hezbollah’s accurate Kornet anti-tank missiles.
• Any move away from the border on the part of Hezbollah fighters will need to be monitored and sustainable, since Hezbollah has a track record of initially complying with such deconfliction steps, before then moving its fighters back closer to the border.

Looking ahead: While around 80,000 Israelis remain indefinitely displaced from their homes in the north, the IDF continues to warn of the need of a ground incursion into southern Lebanon to restore deterrence and security to Israel’s northern border.

• On Wednesday IDF Chief of Staff Halevi told troops, “we are preparing for an offensive in the north.”
• If Israel reach another temporary ceasefire with Hamas, it remains to be seen if Hezbollah, although not party to the arrangement will also hold their fire