BICOM

What’s happened: Israeli Defence Minister Gallant held several meetings with US officials in Washington yesterday, including with Secretary of Defence Austin, Secretary of State Blinken, Special Envoy Hochstein and CIA Director Burns.

• In his meeting with Blinken, said Gallant discussed the transition to ‘Phase C’ in Gaza and its impact on the region, including on Lebanon and other areas.
• “The meetings we are holding are extremely important and impactful on the future of the war in Gaza and our ability to achieve the goals of the war, on developments on the northern border, and other areas.”
• With Burns, Gallant discussed the question of a hostage deal, saying “I have been dealing with this issue since the first day [of the war] and I would like to emphasise that it is Israel’s primary commitment to return the hostages, with no exception, to their families and homes. We will continue to make every possible effort to bring them home.”
• On this issue, having appeared to rule out the so-called Biden hostage deal proposal during a Channel 14 interview over the weekend, in a speech to the Knesset yesterday Prime Minister Netanyahu appeared to row back slightly.
• Netanyahu made three pledges:
  • “First, we will not end the war until we return all of our hostages – 120 hostages, the living and the deceased. We are committed to the Israeli proposal, which President Biden has welcomed. Our position has not changed.”
  • “Second, which does not contradict the first, we will not end the war until we eliminate Hamas and until we return the residents of the south and the north securely to their homes.”
  • “And third – at any price and in any way, we will thwart Iran’s intentions to destroy us.”
• Gallant made reference to recent tensions between Israel and the US, saying “the alliance between Israel and the United States, led by the US over many years, is extremely important. Other than the IDF, our ties with the US are the most important element for our future from a security perspective. We are discussing a variety of issues. In areas where we have disagreements, we discuss everything in detail and reach agreements and solve issues. And I am sure this will be true this time as well.”
• Gallant’s office said he told Blinken that “the eyes of both our enemies and our friends are on the relationship between the US and Israel. We must resolve the differences between us quickly and stand together – this is how we will achieve our goals and weaken our enemies.”
• Elsewhere, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi yesterday conducted a situational assessment in the Rafah area of the Gaza Strip with other senior IDF officers. “We are clearly approaching the point where we can say we have dismantled the Rafah Brigade,” Halevi said, “that it is defeated not in the sense that there are no more terrorists, but in the sense that it can no longer function as a fighting unit. It has suffered many casualties, and you will ensure until the completion of the mission here, to eliminate as many terrorists and destroy as much terrorist infrastructure as possible going forward.”
• In Gaza, overnight the IDF struck Hamas operatives inside two structures in Shati and Daraj Tuffah in the northern Strip. The IDF said that “The terrorists operated inside school compounds that were used by Hamas as a shield for its terrorist activities. The terrorist operatives were involved in the planning of numerous terror attacks against Israel, and some of the terrorists were involved in holding hostages captive and took part in the October 7th Massacre.”
• Palestinian sources are reporting that Hamas’s overseas leader Ismail Haniyeh’s sister was killed in the strikes, along with several other family members. According to the IDF, some of Haniyeh’s family members had been involved in holding hostages and had played a role on October 7^th.
• Israel also announced that Sgt. Maj. Muhammad Alatrash, 39, of the Bedouin community Sa’wa in the Negev, who was previously listed as a hostage, was killed on October 7^th and that his body is being held by Hamas.

Context: Gallant arrived in the US at a time of heightened tensions between the Biden White House and Netanyahu’s government. Last week, public claims by Netanyahu that the US had slowed its supply of weapons to Israel were met with anger and incredulity from Washington.

• Over the weekend, Prime Minister Netanyahu once more accused the US of slowing its supply of weaponry to Israel. “We reached out to our American friends with a request to expedite the shipments,” he said. “We received all sorts of explanations, but the fundamental situation didn’t change. Certain items arrived in a trickle, but the greater mass of munitions remained behind.”
• The opposing messages coming from Israel and the US on weapons seem to stem from the Biden Administration returning to pre-war processes and timetables. While in the early stages of the war in Gaza, weapons transfers were fast-tracked, the administration now seems to have returned to the usual peace-time process, with its accompanying slower pace and holdups. It insists that only the one shipment – of 2,000 pound bombs whose use it feared in Rafah – has been actively withheld.
• There are contradictory assessments of the impact of this return to the status quo on Israel’s progress in Gaza. One Israeli official told Israel’s Channel 12 that the slowed pace had not impacted operations.
• The US has pushed back on Netanyahu’s claims, White House spokesman John Kirby saying last week that they were “perplexing to say the least, certainly disappointing, especially given that no other country is doing more to help Israel defend itself against the threat by Hamas.”
• “The idea that we had somehow stopped helping Israel with their self-defence needs is absolutely not accurate,” he said, describing the claim as “vexing and disappointing to us as much as it was incorrect.”
• Netanyahu also told Channel 14 of his desire to reduce Israel’s reliance on foreign military aid. “We have to invest much more in security and in self-production,” he said, “to free [ourselves] from dependence on others. We need to defeat this [military] wing that committed this massacre against us. Everyone needs to understand that that’s what gets done to anyone who starts a war against Israel.”
• The US was also angered by remarks made by Netanyahu saying Israel would only agree to a “partial” hostage deal, retaining the freedom to return to the fighting in Gaza after a pause.
• His Knesset speech represents a softening and clarifying of his position, and openness to the proposal made public by Biden in a speech in May, which would see all hostages released in a multi-stage deal which also provides for a sustainable ceasefire in Gaza.
• Hamas has made explicit that it will only agree to a hostage deal which clearly provides for a permanent end to the war.
• Whilst Halev’s comments attest to the military’s achievements in Rafah, it is thought that many Hamas terrorists fled the area with the general population using humanitarian corridors.

Looking ahead: Israeli media sources suggest that the US is set to release further weapons shipments to Israel in the coming days.

• With the fighting in Rafah anticipated to be completed in the next two or three weeks, the IDF could declare an end to the ground operation and a transition to ‘Phase C’.
• ‘Phase C’ would see the IDF redeployed out of Gaza’s population centres, whilst remaining in a buffer zone from which it could launch small-scale targeted operations against terror threats. The buffer zone will also provide reassurance to residents of southern Israel that they can return home.
• The US continues to pressure Qatar to expel the Hamas leadership resident there, with the latest suggestions being that they might relocate to Iraq, where they will receive the protection of Iran