BICOM

A new research paper from BICOM by visiting fellow Brigadier-General (res.) Michael Herzog sets out the strategic implications of an expanded and consolidated Iranian presence in Southern Syria.

The July de-escalation agreement for southern Syria concluded by Russia, the US and Jordan has led to relative quiet on the ground. Jordan welcomed the return of the Syrian regime to its northern border but Israel rejected the agreement, arguing that it ignores Iran’s design to fill the post-ISIS void, to establish a long-term presence in Syria, and to turn that theatre into a military front against Israel.

The paper analyses the attempts to create a land corridor by Iran that stretches through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon, as well as Iran’s plans for a long-term military deployment in Syria. Herzog argues that the creation of such an Iranian sphere of direct influence in the heart of the Middle East would create additional tension with Israel and Jordan, and extend Iran’s malign influence towards Shiite populated parts of the Gulf such as in Bahrain, Kuwait and eastern Saudi Arabia. Herzog also reveals that Israeli military planners fear that in a future war with Hezbollah Israel could face a unified Syrian and Lebanese front supplied and directed by Iran.

Herzog concludes that both the US and the UK have an important role to play to address the Iranian regional challenge.

He recommends that rather than withdrawing their military assets in Syria following the defeat of ISIS, they should examine if and how they can be used to block Iran’s plans. The paper also recommends that the US and the UK work with their regional partners – such as Saudi Arabia and Jordan – to call for Iran and non-Syrian militias to evacuate Syria as part of a in any long-term political solution to the Syrian civil war.