BICOM

What’s happened: Israel is anticipating potential significant attacks by Iran and Hezbollah and preparing for hostage release and ceasefire negotiations later this week. This past weekend also saw rocket fire from Lebanon targeting northern Israeli communities and a shooting attack in the Jordan Valley.

• On Sunday afternoon, a 23 year old Israeli civilian Yonatan Deutsch from Beit Shean was killed in a terror attack. Terrorists opened fire in the area of the Mehola Junction, in Jordan Valley while he was driving to visit his fiancé.
• In a second car, Anas Jaramana, 32, from the northern Arab town of Muqeible, was injured in moderate condition and taken to a hospital. Whist the terrorists escaped, Hamas took responsibly for the attack.
• The IDF Chief of Staff Halevi, visited the scene of the attack on Sunday evening ,and said, “Our mission is to catch these terrorists and reach them before attacks occur; here, we did not succeed. The clock counting down to catch the terrorist cell that carried out this attack is ticking backwards. We will reach them; we will continue to fight terrorism, accompanied with the deep sorrow for every victim of this terrorist attack, we will only strengthen our operations against terrorism.”
• Hezbollah fired a barrage of approximately 30 rockets toward northern Israel on Sunday night. Most fell in open areas and no injuries were reported.
• In Gaza the IDF launched a new operation in Khan Yunis following “intelligence indicating the presence of terrorists and terror infrastructure there”. The IDF also struck a terror cell in the Rafah area after its members were identified emerging from a tunnel shaft.
• On Saturday the IDF struck a Hamas command and control centre, which was embedded inside a mosque in the Al-Taba’een school compound. The IDF initially thought at least 19 Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists were eliminated, yesterday they expanded that assessment to 38.  Whist Palestinian sources claimed around 100 people were killed.
• According to the IDF, “The strike was carried out using three precise munitions, which, according to professional analysis, cannot cause the amount of damage that is being reported by the Hamas-run Government Information Office in Gaza…..Prior to the strike, numerous steps were taken to mitigate the risk of harming civilians, including the use of a small warhead, aerial surveillance, and intelligence information.”
• In a separate incident an IDF soldier, Omer Ginzburg was killed by a sniper in the southern Gaza Strip. 690 Israeli soldier have been killed since October 7, including 330 since the IDF began its ground operation in Gaza on October 27^th. 

Context: Israel remains on alert for retaliations by both Iran and Hezbollah following Fuad Shukr and Ismail Haniyeh’s assassinations in Beirut and Tehran.

• The latest assessment suggests that an attack might be carried out either simultaneously or in succession, sometime this week.
• Defence Minister Gallant commented on these threats yesterday, saying, “Our enemies threaten to harm us in ways they have not done before. We hear these messages coming from the direction of Iran and Hezbollah…. Whoever harms us in a way that has not been done in the past, is likely to be hit in a way that hasn’t been done in the past. The IDF has significant capabilities.”
• The UK, France, and Germany have reiterated their support for a hostage deal and cease fire in a joint statement released earlier today. It calls on”Iran and its allies to refrain from attacks that would further escalate regional tensions and jeopardise the opportunity to agree a ceasefire and the release of hostages. They will bear responsibility for actions that jeopardise this opportunity for peace and stability.”
• US Defence Secretary Austin has continued his close coordination with Israeli Defence Minister Gallant. In this latest call, according to the Israeli MOD they, “discussed interoperability with the wide range of US military capabilities deployed to the region.”
• In its latest demonstration of support and deterrence, the US ordered the deployment of a guided missile submarine to the region and to expedite the arrival of the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier.
• There is still hope that a wider confrontation can be avoided and instead progress can be made on the hostage negotiations.
• Among the outstanding issues of contention:
  • Israel is insisting on keeping a presence along Philadelphi Corridor and Rafah crossing on the Egyptian border to prevent further Hamas smuggling and rearmament.
  • Similarly Israel is insisting on a mechanism to prevent the return of armed gunmen to northern Gaza.
  • Israel has also requested the names of the hostages to be freed in the first stage of the deal.
  • The sides also need to agree the identity of the Palestinian security prisoners, and whether Israel will veto some of the most dangerous terrorists. They also need to agree who will be allowed to return to Gaza or the West Bank or elsewhere.
• The are indications that Israel is willing to show increased flexibility on some of these issue, for example reaching understandings with Egypt and the US over preventing smuggling in the south.
• American, Egyptian, and Qatari mediators could present their bridging proposals when they meet on Thursday, despite the latest comments from Hamas saying they will not send representatives to the talks.

Looking ahead: Senior US officials including CIA Director William Burns and National Security Council Coordinator Brett McGurk are scheduled to arrive in the region. They are expected to visit Israel before going to the summit on Thursday, either in Qatar or Egypt.

• The IDF remains braced for attack, particularly tonight and tomorrow which coincides with the 9^th of Av fast, the traditional day of Jewish national mourning. Throughout the ages, the day is synonymous with Jewish tragedy.
• One possible scenario is an infiltration attack by Hezbollah’s Radwan force attacking an Israeli civilian community or military outpost on the border.
• The manhunt continues for the perpetrators of the shooting attack in the Jordan Valley.