BICOM

Israeli leaders are urging caution ahead of a week of diplomacy to address international concerns over Iran’s nuclear programme. Director of the IAEA, Yukiya Amano announced on Friday that he was travelling to Iran on Sunday to meet senior Iranian officials, suggesting there may be progress on IAEA demands to access sites where Iran is suspected of nuclear weapons research. This development has also raised speculation that the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany) may be approaching an interim deal with Iran on the question of its uranium enrichment programme.

The P5+1 are holding a second round of talks with Iran in Baghdad on Wednesday. Both Israel and the US have maintained a strong line in public over the last few weeks that Iran must cease all uranium enrichment activities, as mandated by UN resolutions. G8 countries also reiterated their determination to maintain pressure on Iran in a statement over the weekend. However there is speculation that a compromise deal would allow Iran to continue enriching uranium to 3.5%, which is enough for to create fuel for power generation but not for nuclear weapons. Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak suggested a few weeks ago that Israel might be willing to accept such a compromise. However, Benjamin Netanyahu, speaking in the Czech Republic last Friday, warned of Iranian deception, saying, “It looks as though they see the talks as another opportunity to delay and deceive and buy time, pretty much as North Korea did for many years.”

Iran has a track record of appearing to compromise, only to later back out of a deal. A proposal to remove enriched uranium from Iran collapsed in 2009 when Iran tried to change the terms of the deal after it had been agreed. Such tactics have been used successfully to divide the international community and to buy time.