BICOM

The IDF’s Intelligence Branch yesterday presented its annual assessment to defence correspondents. Among the findings, the assessment predicts that the greatest risk of conflict on Israel’s borders in 2016 could come from ISIS-affiliated terrorists in Sinai.

The Islamist group Sinai Province, which has pledged allegiance to ISIS, has persistently attacked Egyptian military forces in Sinai since 2013. Although the regime in Cairo has been their primary target, Sinai Province has also made clear that it is committed to attacking Israel. As recently as July, it was responsible for firing three Grad rockets into Israel. In December, ISIS head Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi said that “Israel will pay a heavy price at the hands of our fighters.” Although Sinai Province’s capabilities are limited, the IDF assesses that it poses the most immediate threat to Israel’s borders. The group is thought to have one thousand members and a supply of money and weapons from ISIS.

The IDF also considers the immediate possibility of a conflict with Hezbollah on Israel’s northern border as slim. Having suffered at least 1,300 dead and over 10,000 wounded in Syria, Hezbollah is not keen on an escalation with Israel for the time being. However, an unforeseen individual event could ignite a wider clash, which the IDF believes will be on a larger and more destructive scale than previous conflicts. Hezbollah is thought to have a stockpile of 100,000 rockets at its disposal and an IDF official commented, “Hezbollah has turned most of the Shiite villages in southern Lebanon into [military] posts.” The IDF also predicts that Israeli air and naval craft would come under fire and that Ben Gurion International Airport would be closed.

The assessment also dealt with the current wave of Palestinian violence, which it terms a “limited uprising.” The IDF believes that the situation can best be calmed not only by cracking down on those responsible for attacks, but by allowing the Palestinian population to go about their daily lives as much as possible.