BICOM

Lakhdar Brahimi, the United Nations and Arab League envoy to Syria, who has been tasked with brokering a peaceful resolution to the country’s violent conflict, yesterday delivered a bleak assessment of the situation in the country. With an estimated 40,000 people killed so far in the Syrian conflict, he predicted yesterday that without a political solution, the situation will further deteriorate in 2013.

He said, “It is getting worse, and therefore if nearly 50,000 were killed in nearly two years if… this crisis continues for another year, it will not only kill 25,000. It will kill 100,000.” Brahimi warned that if no political solution to the conflict can be reached, it will lead to “the full collapse of the Syrian state” and the chaos of “Somalisation, which means warlords – and the Syrian people will be persecuted.” Israeli and Western leaders have repeatedly expressed concern over the prospect of a dangerous power vacuum in a post-Assad Syria.

Brahimi further warned of the serious regional impact of such a scenario, saying “If you have one million people leaving Damascus in a panic, they can go to only two places — Lebanon and Jordan. Neither Lebanon or Jordan can support 500,000 refugees without breaking.”

Over the last week, Brahimi has conducted a series of meetings with officials of the Assad regime in Damascus and with Russian leaders, who have been a key ally to the embattled Syrian president. However, Brahimi’s efforts have so far failed to achieve a breakthrough.