Israel’s war drums against the JCPOA have quieted down over the past year, but this does not mean it has come to terms with the agreement. Jerusalem continues to view it as a highly problematic deal, one that presents long-term dangers in the nuclear field and short- to medium-term dangers in the regional and conventional military fields. Developments since July 2015 have only heightened these concerns, not alleviated them.

Obama administration officials often speak as if the deal enjoys significant support within Israel’s defense establishment. At a Senate hearing in late February, Secretary of State John Kerry hammered this point by claiming that Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot had admitted the previous month that the deal removed an existential threat from Israel. Yet the general’s nuanced remark was taken out of context and presented inaccurately. According to Eisenkot, the deal is a “strategic turning point” that contains “many risks but also opportunities.” While the nuclear challenge is now long-term — the general noted that “within fifteen years…we will have to place Iran in high-priority monitoring of its nuclear program, and ask questions about possible secret channels” — Tehran will threaten Israel via Hezbollah and other proxies in the short term, likely increasing their funding and capabilities.

In fact, from an Israeli strategic perspective, shared by the vast majority of the defense establishment, the Iranian-led axis continues to pose the most serious threat to Israel’s national security, even more than the Islamic State (IS). While the latter group is no less hostile to Israel and is hardly overlooked, the Iranian axis is led by a weighty regional power that has merged its quest for regional hegemony with nuclear ambitions and has the tools to advance both. Tehran does not allow regional turmoil to blur its hostile focus on Israel, openly calling for the country’s destruction time and time again while persistently fostering belligerent proxy forces in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza.

Read the full report at the Washington Institute.