Within days, the principals of the Middle East Quartet (the UN, the United States, the EU, and Russia) are expected to release a report on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that includes recommendations on “the best way to advance the two-state solution”. Together with the June 3 Paris peace conference, this effort shows that while the conflict has been marginalised amid dramatic regional upheaval, it is not off the international agenda. Recent months have seen a surge in the number of actual and contemplated initiatives relating to the conflict, and this burst could ultimately dictate the peacemaking agenda for the next US administration. In addition to the French effort and the Quartet report, there has been talk of a potential Arab initiative under Egypt’s sponsorship. Moreover, the Palestinians, the United States, or other actors may push later this year for a UN Security Council resolution (UNSCR) on issues such as settlements, parameters for resolving the core issues, or recognition of Palestinian statehood.

THE QUARTET REPORT

The Quartet first announced that it would prepare a report on the conflict in February, and from what is known so far, most of the document will likely deal with developments on the ground that are hindering a two-state solution. While this will include mention of Palestinian political divisions, incitement, and terrorist attacks, most of the onus will probably be on Israel, being the stronger party. In this context, the report is expected to concentrate on Area C, the roughly 60 percent portion of the West Bank that is under full Israeli control — the Quartet will likely criticise Israeli settlement activities and house demolitions there, arguing that they erode the potential for a two-state solution embodied in Area C. Israel contends that this potential still exists, and that there is no deliberate policy on the ground designed to close the two-state window.

In her June 6 speech before the UN, European Union High Representative Federica Mogherini defined the report’s main goal as rebuilding the confidence and conditions necessary to return to meaningful negotiations. It remains to be seen what those recommendations will be, and in what form the report will be adopted by the UN, as is widely expected.

Read the Full report at the Washington Institute.