Recent security incidents to Israel’s north and south brought the country’s attention back to its most explosive fronts – against Hezbollah and against Hamas. On October 5 and 6, 2016, rockets and mortar shells were fired from Gaza by an extremist Salafist organization, and Israel responded forcefully, primarily from the air. At the same time, it was reported that a Hezbollah cell of Kafr Rajar residents was caught; the cell had planned to carry out attacks in Israel. These events raise the question of a watershed against the terrorist organizations on both fronts, and whether another round of fighting in the south or north, or perhaps on both fronts, will take place soon. Neither Hezbollah nor Hamas is interested in escalation at present, but there is a chance that tactical events may lead to deterioration. This article analyzes the balance of forces and factors that could disrupt the calm, and highlights the issues that Israel must examine prior to the next confrontation.

Both fronts have similar characteristics, as on both the IDF faces terror organizations that have institutionalized and have taken on characteristics of states. On both fronts, the enemy is currently not interested in fighting with Israel.  Israel achieved strong deterrence in previous rounds of fighting against both Hezbollah and Hamas – the Second Lebanon War and Operation Protective Edge, respectively. This deterrence was achieved due to the heavy price paid by the two organizations and their constituencies. However deterrence is a tricky term, and future actions and different calculations may weaken it.

Read the full article at INSS.