“Just days before the U.S. presidential election it is worth considering how – barring an unforeseen development – one of the most widely-trailed military operations in recent years will not in fact have taken place: Israel will not have attacked Iran before Americans go to the polls.

We do not know with absolutely certainty if Israel did not attack because it chose not to do so, or if it felt compelled not to attack because of the red light for the operation from Washington. In an interview with Britain’s Daily Telegraph at the end of October, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said that the delay of the strike was due to Iran diverting uranium from its military to civilian programs. Yet, based on private conversations, one cannot preclude the possibility that Defense Minister Barak withdrew his support because he feared it would be viewed as interfering with the upcoming U.S. election. The premise of any pre-election strike was that Israel would be taking advantage of a time when maximizing its political influence in Washington since President Obama would have been constrained in his reaction. The implication is that the pre-election period could be ‘insulated’, and therefore the consequences would not be felt after the election.”

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