Expectations of an agreement coming out of the Baghdad talks, while talked up by western diplomats in advance, were exaggerated to begin with. The nuclear issues are much too complex for a deal to be agreed upon in two short days, but the buildup and now the anticlimax could actually help the diplomats eventually achieve their objective.

In three weeks, sanctions will have bit even harder into the Iranian economy, with new European sanctions on its oil exports looming at the end of the month, and the regime will be under much greater pressure. And after each side played hard to get in Baghdad, perhaps impressing audiences and skeptics at home and away, they may have more leeway to compromise in Moscow.

Benjamin Netanyahu probably will not repeat his “freebie” remark from the aftermath of the previous talks in Istanbul, but he will almost certainly find a way to voice his displeasure and accuse the diplomats of allowing the Iranians more time to further their nuclear ambitions. But that is his role in these negotiations, and if Netanyahu wasn’t there, someone else would have to play bad-cop and keep the military option hovering over Tehran.

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