The threat of the weak (ynetnews)

– “Strategically, Israeli doctrine is based on its ability to deter its neighbors. However, with a possible collapse of central authority, for example during a civil war, it is unclear who is to be deterred.

Operationally, Middle East regimes under threat might initiate armed action against Israel in a desperate effort to retain public legitimacy. This is true both for current regimes that are fighting for their lives, as well as future emerging regimes that might face similar legitimacy problems. Finally, the difficulties our neighbors are facing in exerting effective control over their border areas with Israel have the potential of creating spheres of action against Israel as we saw in the case of the Sinai. Ineffective law enforcement in border regions may lead to further challenges such as easier transit of illegal labor immigrants, drugs, and criminal elements.

The Israel Defense Force is in early phases of adjusting to the new realities but we should be realistic: Israel’s ability to influence events in the region is limited. Still, there are a number of steps that we could take. First, we should develop a new frame of reference regarding the nature of the new threats. In particular, we should develop tools to deter the new actors that threaten us.”

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