Comment and Opinion
Louis Rene Beres – 17/01/2012
Iranian threat: Legal remedies and remaining options (Jerusalem Post)
– “Generally, in strategic thinking, deterrence logic must be based on an assumption of enemy rationality. This assumption might not always be warranted in the case of Iran. Any purported analogy between Iran and the US deterrence relationship with the former Soviet Union would be facile, or simply misguided.
If Iran’s current leadership could somehow meet the core test of rationality, always valuing national survival over other preferences or combinations of preferences, there could still remain intolerable security risks to Israel. In part, these risks would be associated with Tehran’s expectedly problematic command and control of any future nuclear capabilities. For example, even a determinedly rational Iranian leadership could base critical nuclear decisions upon erroneous information, assorted computer errors, or fragile predelegations of launch authority.”