As the nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 goes into effect with the announcement of Implementation Day and the lifting of major international sanctions, the huge challenge of making it work still lies ahead for the international community. While the deal’s prospects will primarily be determined by Western deterrence against Iran, recent events preceding this new strategic era have eroded Western deterrence rather than strengthening it.

This is perhaps best symbolised by the fact that while 2016 started with a (metaphorical) bang – in heralding a new relationship with Iran – 2015 ended with a whimper – as the IAEA’s board of governors decided to close the file on investigating past Possible Military Dimensions (PMD) of Iran’s nuclear programme.

Relatively little international debate has surrounded the IAEA’s dramatic verdict. Yet it is difficult to reconcile this near indifference with the reality that the ruling rewards Iran for bad behaviour in both the nuclear and regional fields. This is a worrying omen for the future.

The nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 did not condition its implementation – including the lifting of sanctions – on Iran admitting its past military-related nuclear activities. It did however provide the IAEA with leverage of possible continued investigation of these activities. Yet despite the IAEA’s 2 December 2015 ‘Final Assessment’ report that Iran possessed a structured nuclear weapons programme until 2003, and continued its activities in this field at least as recently as 2009, the board chose to ignore its own damning conclusions, thereby rubber stamping Iran’s concealment, denial and deception on the issue.

Read the article in full at Fathom.