On October 28, for the first time since Moscow began its air campaign in Syria, Russian jets reportedly targeted rebel forces in the south. The strikes focused on Tal Harra — which is less than twelve miles from the Israeli border — and other locations in Deraa province. Such operations raise concerns in Israel and Jordan and will likely test Russia’s relations with both countries. The strikes should not come as a surprise, however. Over the past few weeks, Russia’s statements, diplomatic maneuvers, and battle dynamics have suggested that its plans may expand to other areas, including the south.

RUSSIAN STATEMENTS

On October 23, during the annual meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club — a premier forum that gives participants rare private access to Russian officials — President Vladimir Putin and other figures spoke about the Kremlin’s strategy in Syria. According to a memo issued by the Eurasia Group, some of these Russian elites indicated that the intervention will extend to the south. They added that the Syrian army, Hezbollah, Iranian forces, and various Shiite militias will serve as the boots on the ground for the entire intervention, supported by Russian airstrikes. So far, Russian and allied offensives have focused on northern and central Syria, but Wednesday’s strikes indicate they may now be turning more attention to the south.

SOUTHWARD GROUND ADVANCES

In mid-October, the Syrian army, Hezbollah reinforcements, and local militias loyal to the regime turned back a rebel offensive in the southern province of Quneitra. Hezbollah reportedly contributed around 500 fighters to the battle, helping the regime take back the Tal al-Ahmar height, the so-called “UN Hill,” and other important posts that could help Bashar al-Assad’s forces expand their hold in the area. It is not yet clear whether the army will take advantage of this momentum and push forward in Quneitra or simply maintain the current situation.

In the regime’s view, severing logistical and operational links between rebels in the south and those in the Damascus suburbs is crucial to defending the capital. Some reports indicate that the regime is already concentrating forces for a renewed offensive in the south. If the army decides to push forward, it might ask for increased Russian air support. The Syrian air force has operated in the south before, but it has been hesitant to execute airstrikes near the Israeli border since September 2014, when one of its fighter jets was shot down after crossing into Israeli airspace. Requesting Russian airstrikes is a smart move, as Damascus probably assumes that Israel will not challenge the Russian air force.

Read the article in full at the Washington Institute.