Russia’s involvement in the Syrian crisis constitutes a new strategic paradigm in the Middle East and the international arena. This will have significant implications for the balance of power and the rivalries in Syria’s civil war, and for the struggle between the superpowers for global influence. Israel is also affected by these implications, given the change in the balance of power and in light of the risk of internal Syrian pressures spilling over into southern Syria and the Golan Heights.

The Russian military intervention in Syria was prepared carefully, apparently in coordination with Iran, but accompanied by an element of surprise. President Vladimir Putin still views the Assad regime as a vital component in the solution to the problem of radical Islam and in the end to the civil war in Syria, and claims that the world does not understand the importance of President Assad’s role in the fight against jihadist terror. However, at this stage, only token Russian forces are involved, intended to defend Assad’s stronghold in the Syrian coastal and Latakia regions, where the Alawite sect is concentrated, aid Assad’s forces by attacking rebel strongholds from the air, and arm and train Syrian military forces loyal to Assad. Even though this activity is accompanied by Russian messages about the intention to fight the Islamic State, the first sorties by Russian air force jets intended to strike at other organizations opposed to Assad. In addition, the composition of Russian forces in Syria thus far does not suit the fighting – primarily ground fighting – necessary for combat against the Islamic State forces. Against this backdrop, Russia announced the establishment of a coalition against the Islamic State, parallel to the existing United States coalition with a similar objective.

This development creates a significant challenge for the United States and President Obama’s Middle East policy, as well as for other nations in the region, including Israel. The Russian intervention in Syria follows Russia’s intense political activity in the region, which has scored diplomatic achievements with most of the countries in the region. Russia has also positioned itself as a leader of internal reconciliation efforts in Syria. Indeed, in recent months, two rounds of talks between the rival parties have been held under Russian auspices, and preparations have been made for an additional round of talks in collaboration with the UN.

Read the article in full at INSS.