In a recent meeting, GOC Sami Turgeman stated: “There is an independent rule in Gaza that runs like a state. Inside that state there is a sovereign entity, Hamas. As of now, there is no substitute for Hamas.” The organization, however, currently faces difficult challenges at home and from outside. First, it must advance the faltering, slow reconstruction of the Gaza Strip and raise the local standard of living. Second, it must improve its status vis-à-vis the leadership of the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority and lessen the increasing hostility and divisive split between them. Third, it endeavors to maintain its military infrastructure, for use in a next round of conflict with Israel. At the same time, Hamas must contend with Salafi jihad groups in an escalating struggle. Finally, it must maneuver politically and economically in the complex space between political Islam/the Muslim Brotherhood, as advanced by Qatar and Turkey; pragmatic Arab countries; and Iran, leader of the radical Shiite axis in the Middle East.

The Political Islam Axis: Unofficial Negotiations with Israel, in Exchange for a Long Term Lull

Reports of unofficial negotiations between Israeli representatives and Hamas have surfaced recently, apparently following a proposal raised by Turkey and Qatar to establish a seaport in the Gaza Strip in exchange for a lull that will continue for five to ten years. Reports of these contacts angered Fatah, as in the Egyptian plan that was the basis for the ceasefire that ended Operation Protective Edge, the issue of the seaport appears as an item for future discussion.

If such contacts are really taking place, they serve Hamas’ interests well. An actual attempt by Hamas to build a seaport in the Gaza Strip, even if it is forced into unofficial negotiations with Israel, could boost public support at the expense of the Palestinian leadership, particularly given the mutual recriminations between Hamas and the PA, which have delayed the transfer of funds designated for salaries and Gaza reconstruction. Thus far, however, there is no official confirmation of the contacts.

The Pragmatic Arab Countries: A New Palestinian Reconciliation Agreement?

In early May 2015, Mahmoud a-Zahar, a member of the Hamas political leadership, called on Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries to promote a new reconciliation agreement between Hamas and Fatah and establish a committee to oversee its implementation. A-Zahar asserted that the unity government agreed on in April 2014 (the Shati agreement) had failed in dealing with the Gaza Strip. He declared that Hamas opposed Abbas’ demand for control over the Gaza Strip border crossings, and that a new agreement should therefore be formulated to resolve this problem. At the same time, the rift between the two organizations is widening, mainly due to the failure to rebuild the Gaza Strip, Abbas’ concern about the isolation of Gaza under Hamas control from the West Bank, and criticism by Hamas of Abbas’ policy toward Israel, regarded as weak and submissive. The slogan “Abbas, get out!” appears frequently in the media and in public discussion in the Gaza Strip.

Read the article in full at INSS.