Iran in possession of a nuclear weapon is an ever-present danger in our minds. Especially in light of the framework agreement signed by the United States and the other four permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany [the P5+1], which provides Iran with legitimacy for its vast nuclear infrastructure and reduces the break-out period for an Iranian nuclear weapon to a minimum.

But it is not the only great danger hovering over Israel. In addition, there are more than 100,000 rockets and missiles in the hands of Hezbollah in Lebanon all pointed at Israel, plus thousands of rockets in the hands ofHamas in Gaza. They put all of Israel’s civilian population at risk. Which is the greater danger?

We can get some indication of the severity of the danger facing us by attempting to calculate the expectation, or the expected value, of the physical damage that might be caused by the occurrence of either of the two events: an attack by an Iranian nuclear weapon; or an attack by Hezbollah missiles and rockets. There is no way of assigning objective probabilities to these events, but we can make some intuitive guesses.

Read the article in full at Haaretz.