At the end of the day, the key to what happens on the northern border in the wake of the Israeli attack in Syria on Sunday lies in Iran’s hands

If Ali Khamenei and the Iranian leadership want an escalation, then an escalation there will be. If Tehran isn’t looking for one, then it simply won’t happen.

In contrast to earlier incidents, the midday attack near Mazrat Amal in in the Quneitra district didn’t end with only Lebanese casualties. Yes, initial reports gave the name of Jihad Mughniyeh, thought of as a symbol because of his father Imad Mughniyeh, as the most senior official killed in the attack. But Colonel Ali Reza al-Tabatabai, commander of the Radwan force of the Revolutionary Guards in Lebanon, was also killed. This force, seen as a special operations unit, is responsible for planning attacks against Israel. These operations range from kidnappings and tunnel attacks to capturing territory.

It’s not likely Muhgniyeh and Tabatabai were on their way to a picnic when they were struck from the air, and it is very possible they were examining various ways to carry out attacks against Israel from the Syrian Golan Heights.

Still, it’s not clear how urgent this attack was for Israel. Iran’s and Hezbollah’s activities in the sector are not exactly secrets, and neither was the presence of the younger Muhgniyeh, the Hezbollah commander responsible for the sector.

We can also assume that Israeli intelligence knew about the presence of the Iranian commander in the car with Mughniyeh when it gave the order to strike. The decision to attack such a vehicle is not to be taken lightly, and one must hope that those responsible for the operation in the political and defense establishments understood completely the potential it held for immediate escalation against Hezbollah and its patron Iran.

Read the article in full at Times of Israel.