The consequences of Wednesday’s death of a Palestinian Authority minister following clashes with Israeli soldiers and Border Police officers will become clear in another few days.

PA Minister Ziad Abu Ein, who died at a West Bank protest, will be buried in a big funeral in Ramallah on Thursday. Then come Friday prayers, which are expected to be accompanied by a wave of protests led by Fatah and the PA. The events of this weekend – the extent of clashes between Palestinian demonstrators and Israeli security forces, and of the resulting casualties – will indicate whether this is a crisis that can be halted in its tracks, through a joint effort by Israel and the PA, or a turning point that will lead to an escalation in the territories.

Whether or not calm will prevail depends largely on whether Israelis and Palestinians continue to coordinate their security efforts in the West Bank. On Wednesday Fatah leader Jibril Rajoub said the PA would stop working with Israel on security. On Wednesday night Palestinian leaders met in Ramallah to discuss continued security coordination.

The Palestinians could take a major step to protest Abu Ein’s death, in response to people’s expectations in the West Bank – although such a step may be confined to the realm of rhetoric. Even if it happens, Israelis and Palestinians can be expected to resume at least informal contact to make sure they don’t lose control of the situation altogether.

Israel has proposed a joint investigation of Abu Ein’s death that would include an autopsy in which an Israeli pathologist would be involved, in an effort to help calm tensions. Autopsy results are slated to be released tonight. In the meantime, the Israel Defense Forces will deploy two additional infantry battalions and two Border Police companies in the West Bank.

Israeli officials say they think PA President Mahmoud Abbas would rather avoid violent, widespread clashes.

In the early post-Oslo days, when Gadi Eisenkot – whose appointment to IDF chief of staff was confirmed by the Turkel selection committee on Wednesday – headed a brigade in the West Bank, army officials liked to talk about a scenario known as “the strategic corporal.” This referred to something that happened on multiple occasions: There would be a pinpoint failure by a military force that would have strategic ramifications, such as a major wave of popular Palestinian violence that would disrupt the peace process.
 Right now there is no peace process to speak of, but the “strategic corporal” scenario remains a threat.

Read the article in full at Haaretz.