The upcoming election will be a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s continued rule. At its heart will be one question: Will the Israeli public want Netanyahu for a fourth term, or prefer to send him home to Caesarea, after two decades in which he has been the dominant figure in Israeli politics. This is the story: Will Netanyahu maintain his standing as the only politician who can put a coalition together, the way he did in the previous two elections? Or will his opponents manage this time to join forces against him and leave him out?

This election has two possible outcomes. The first, which at the moment seems more likely, is a rightist ultra-Orthodox government reinforced by one or two centrist parties (Moshe Kahlon, and perhaps a depleted Lapid). That government would adhere to the right wing’s traditional priorities: increasing the defense budget and strengthening settlements and the ultra-Orthodox. It would take advantage of the weakness of the administration of United States President Barack Obama, on his way out of office, to take diplomatic risks and deepen the annexation of the territories, while oppressing the Arab community within the Green Line.

The second alternative is a leftist-center government headed by Labor MK Isaac Herzog, bolstered by the ultra-Orthodox and a right-wing faction or two (Yisrael Beiteinu or Likud). Such a government would not be able to reach a diplomatic agreement with the Palestinians that would involve withdrawal from territories and evacuation of settlers because of its reliance on the support of right-wing Knesset members. It could, however, radiate a moderate diplomatic approach and improve Israel’s ties with the U.S. and Europe, devote more attention and resources to domestic needs and act to calm conflict between Jews and Arabs in israel, while shelving racist legislation like the Jewish nation-state bill.

Read the article in full at Haaretz.