The fall of major Iraqi cities to Sunni extremists belonging to the Sunni group Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) may well have implications beyond the borders of Iraq. The evolution toward the dissolution of the country, which began following the US invasion in 2003 and the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime, will intensify. The independent Kurdish region is an established fact, recognized by most of the actors in the region. If the Sunni takeover of central Iraq is not stopped, it could lead to the establishment of a semi-independent Sunni area, with southern Iraq falling easily into the hands of Iran. In such a situation, Iraq would become an exporter of terror, with the various groups that operate there exploiting Syria’s weakness to expand their operations in the Middle East.

All of Iraq’s neighbors, as well as the United States, have cause for major worry about the immediate and long term implications of the recent developments. The weakening of the central Iraqi government’s hold on the various parts of the country may serve Iran’s interest in extending its influence and potentially create an Iranian-controlled land link with Syria and Hizbollah. However, this victory by Sunnis, who did not rely on Iranian aid, will not be seen as an achievement in Tehran. Indeed the fall of important Shiite cities such as Najaf and Karbala into ISIS hands would be an Iranian nightmare.

Turkey will also view the developments in Iraq with concern. The terrorist takeover of areas near its borders increases its fear that a security problem will be created to the south, extending over parts of Syria and Iraq, and that situations could develop that would force Ankara to take military action, a move it has avoided until now. Turkey, with its Sunni Muslim character, will be forced to monitor the movement into its territory of elements identified with ISIS.

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