As negotiations continue between the P5+1 and Iran over a comprehensive nuclear deal, Israel remains in ‘wait and see’ mode.

During this week’s round, the parties are due to begin drafting the text of a final deal. U.S. National Security Adviser Susan Rice’s visit to Israel last week signaled the U.S. administration’s belief that this round warrants more high-level deliberations with Israel.

According to their public positions, the P5+1 and Iran are still far apart on key substantive issues regarding Iran’s nuclear program, but behind the scenes they may be getting closer. Israel surely used the meeting with Rice and her delegation to do the only thing it can do at this point: To attempt to convince the Americans not to concede to the Iranians critical issues that will enable Iran to retain a relatively quick breakout to nuclear weapons.

The most probable near-term outcome of the talks is neither a good deal (one that indicates Iran has backed away from its military ambitions), nor – at this stage – a quick move by Iran to upgrade to being a nuclear-armed state, without any deal.

There are three possible scenarios that inhabit the ground between the extremes of a ‘good’ deal, and one where Iran breaks out militarily:

• A mutually agreed-upon extension of the negotiations for another six months after the July 20th deadline.

• An announcement by the P5+1 on July 20th that Iran is not cooperating and/or moving toward an acceptable deal, and that they will implement harsher sanctions.

• A deal with Iran that falls somewhere between ‘mediocre’ and ‘bad,’ enabling Iran to move relatively quickly to a military nuclear capability.

Read the article in full at Haaretz.