Comment and Opinion
BICOM: Michael Herzog assesses recent violence on the Israel-Syrian border
On 18 March four Israeli soldiers were wounded in a bomb attack on the Syrian border, triggering Israeli airstrikes against Syrian military targets. The attack on Israeli soldiers was the latest in a series of similar incidents. To discuss this development, BICOM’s Director of Research Dr. Toby Greene spoke with BICOM’s Senior Visiting Fellow, Brig. Gen. (res.) Michael Herzog, who is the author of an extensive new BICOM Expert View paper entitled, Navigating the Arab Storm Three Years On. This paper explores the implications of the dramatic changes taking place in the Arab world for regional security. The following is an edited transcript of the interview. You can listen to the interview in full on our BICOM Podcasts page.
Who do you think carried out the attack on 18 March and why?
While it is not yet clear who exactly perpetrated the attack, without doubt the attack was carried out by pro-Assad forces; it could be either Syrian forces or Hezbollah forces or affiliates. This is the third such incident in the last month on the Israeli-Syrian border. In all cases the Israeli government believes that pro-Assad or Hezbollah forces are responsible.
As for the why, the first reason probably has to do with wanting to respond to airstrikes attributed to Israel. According to international media, Israel has carried out a series of strikes against strategic weapons being transferred from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The most recent (at the end of February) was slightly on the Lebanese side of the Syria-Lebanon border. Both Syria and Hezbollah probably felt the need to respond, following a series of strikes to which they did not respond.
Secondly both Syria and Hezbollah feel emboldened after a series of successes for Assad’s forces in the Syrian civil war – in the Damascus area, closer to the Lebanese border, in Homs, and elsewhere. Whilst they don’t control most of the country, in relative terms their position has improved.
None of these parties are interested in an escalation to an armed conflict with Israel, from which they stand much to lose. They probably want to respond in a way that will not bring about an escalation. It is interesting to note that nobody has assumed responsibility for the attacks on Israeli soldiers, much as Israel has not assumed responsibility for its reported airstrikes against weapons convoys.
Will this change Israeli policy calculations?
I don’t think this will change Israeli policy. Israel has to be careful. It is also not interested in escalating the situation and does not want to be drawn into the war in Syria. But if Israel is aware of strategic weapons being transferred to Hezbollah, which could serve as game changers in the balance of power between Israel and Hezbollah, it will be prompted to act.
As noted, in all of these cases [when Israel reportedly targeted weapons convoys from Syria to Hezbollah] Israel has not assumed public responsibility. However there were leaks in the media. Usually the initial response of Syria and Hezbollah would be to say they are unaware of the incident, but once these incidents go public they feel compelled to respond.
Is Israel concerned about anti-Assad Jihadist forces in Syria trying to trigger a conflict between Israel and Syria and Hezbollah forces?
Israel is not aware of this happening so far but it might. Rebels now control most of the border between Syria and Israel. These are forces hostile to Israel and many of them are Jihadist.
There are also signs that Hezbollah is operating in the Golan Heights. This is very convenient for them, because they calculate that if things escalate they will do so on the Syrian side of the border and not in Lebanon.
Overall this means that Israel’s northern border is heating up. We had quiet for nearly 40 years on the border with Syria and now Israel is facing an unstable situation where it is faced with a variety of forces – Syrian army, Hezbollah, Jihadist forces – all of which are hostile to Israel.