This year, the ministers had a hard time getting an analysis from MI that would embrace all the processes under way in the region. The first half of 2014 is likely to be marked by a “dynamics of arrangements”: Efforts to resolve, or at least tone down, the crises related to the Iranian nuclear project (the Geneva agreement), the war in Syria (the international conference scheduled to be held in Switzerland next month) and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (the Kerry initiative, in the wake of which the sides embarked on nine months of negotiations on a final-status settlement). The picture might become clearer toward this coming spring, but the prospects for agreements in the three channels don’t look high. In the Iranian case, MI believes there is little chance of a permanent agreement being reached within six months. A series of extensions might be necessary for the interim agreement, with the aim of averting a clash.

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