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Comment and Opinion

World Affairs: The Iran Deal’s Ten Fatal Flaws, by Alan Johnson

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Yes, it is interim; and yes, we must now direct all our energies to the struggle to shape the endgame deal. Still, before we do, and so we know how tough that struggle will be, we should also register just how bad the deal struck in Geneva really is.

First, it legitimized the Iranian regime’s claim to a right to enrich (in the face of six UN Security Council resolutions demanding that enrichment stop).

Second, it confirmed there will be a reactor at Arak. The UK, US, and France might hope that this will be converted to a light water reactor (posing much lower proliferation risk) but the agreement only specifies that there will be no facility capable of reprocessing. This leaves wide open the possibility that Arak could become a heavy water reactor as planned, ultimately capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium.

Third, the prohibition on enriching and stockpiling 20 percent uranium enrichment is of much less relevance now that Iran has 1,000 installed IR2 advanced centrifuges equivalent to 3,000 to 5,000 additional IR1 centrifuges. Yes, it is unlikely Iran’s leaders will dash openly for the bomb any time soon, preferring to creep toward their goal, but they currently retain all their capacity to break out (i.e., weaponize) at some point in the future.

Read the article in full at World Affairs