“Syria’s chemical weapons were always the deterrent element in its strategy to balance Israel’s overall military strength and its undeclared nuclear threat. However, since the outbreak of the civil war these chemical weapons have become the Alawite community’s best insurance policy against the threat to their physical existence and to the survival of the Assad regime.

Back in May, I suggested in Haaretz that the United States and Russia agree to a “grand bargain” under which “all Syrian non-conventional weapons (chemical, nuclear and biological) be removed and destroyed under international supervision (in the same manner as the Gadhafi regime’s chemical weapons were destroyed after the regime’s fall).” At the same time, if the Assad regime should fall, the U.S. and Russia should guarantee the security and the safety of the Syrian regime’s dominant Alawite minority, who may well decide to retreat into an Alawite statelet in order to preserve the survival of their community from the certain revenge of the Sunni rebels.”

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