“The election of Hassan Rohani as Iran’s new president has not surprisingly produced a flurry of analysis on what might be expected as far as the nuclear crisis is concerned, and whether the long and drawn-out negotiations with the international community could finally end in agreement. So far there is no evidence to suggest that there has been any change in Iran’s basic interests, nor in its ongoing desire to achieve a military nuclear capability. Nevertheless, much commentary is currently focused on the prospect of a new opportunity for diplomatic progress. Is it warranted?

The hope in the West has long been that if enough pressure is brought to bear, Iran might change its cost-benefit analysis vis-a-vis the nuclear issue and be willing to come to a deal. Rohani’s very election indicates that the pressure of biting sanctions has had an effect – at least in the sense that it forced the Supreme Leader to include a presidential candidate who has directed attention to the need to improve the economic situation. And there is little doubt that Rohani will be focused on sanctions relief at the next round of nuclear negotiations, although the current negotiator Saeed Jalili had the same aim at the last two rounds in 2012 and 2013, to no avail.”

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